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Auburn at Georgia

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

Auburn3-2
at
#1 Georgia6-0

Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET · ESPN

Sanford Stadium · Athens, GA

☀️ 70° Mostly sunny · wind 13 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Georgia by 18.1, the book by 19.5: siding with Auburn +19.5.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

AUB 13%win chanceUGA 87%
GordStatsUGA by 18.187% to win · AUB 16–UGA 34
DraftKingsUGA -19.5O/U 49.5
ESPN FPIUGA 90%win chance
Watch score88

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Georgia's pass defense (47th) meets Auburn's passing game (119th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Auburn Offense vs Georgia Defense

AUB offUGA def
EPA per play
94th+0.0728th+0.04
Run EPA
38th+0.108th-0.01
Pass EPA
119th+0.1047th+0.15
Success rate
83rd40%22nd38%
Explosiveness
20th0.9631st0.91
Line yards
30th3.0837th2.87
Havoc
102nd16%24th19%
Points per trip
76th3.7726th2.88
Third downs
28th47%57th36%

Auburn: 70 plays a game (42nd most) · passes on 52% of plays

Georgia Offense vs Auburn Defense

UGA offAUB def
EPA per play
2nd+0.2631st+0.05
Run EPA
19th+0.1248th+0.05
Pass EPA
5th+0.3842nd+0.14
Success rate
9th48%39th40%
Explosiveness
73rd0.9348th0.92
Line yards
17th3.1438th2.87
Havoc
24th12%57th17%
Points per trip
1st5.3962nd3.24
Third downs
6th55%32nd32%

Georgia: 62 plays a game (117th most) · passes on 46% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Auburn

  • QBByrum Brown+0.05 EPA a dropback · 175 dropbacks · 121st of 130 QBs
  • RBJeremiah Cobb+0.14 EPA a carry · 44 carries · 93rd of 194 RBs
  • WRKeshaun Singleton+0.41 EPA a target · 45 targets · 235th of 390 WRs
  • WRChas Nimrod+0.36 EPA a target · 37 targets · 259th of 390 WRs

Georgia

  • QBGunner Stockton+0.66 EPA a dropback · 121 dropbacks · 4th of 130 QBs
  • RBChauncey Bowens+0.12 EPA a carry · 34 carries
  • WRTalyn Taylor+0.85 EPA a target · 18 targets · 57th of 390 WRs
  • WRCraig Dandridge+0.58 EPA a target · 15 targets · 152nd of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Auburn

  • L14-24at Tennessee−4
  • W21-15vs Vanderbilt+2
  • L39-44vs Florida−7
  • W43-8vs Southern Miss+15

Georgia

  • W20-17at Alabama+10
  • W38-14vs Vanderbilt+3
  • W41-13vs Oklahoma+16
  • W45-17at Arkansas+11

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).