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Auburn
Updated Thu, Oct 15 · 11:35 PM ET
3–2 · 27th of 138
Rated +11.9 points vs an average FBS team · scoring -4.3 vs the average game
Projected Record
| Source | W–L | How |
|---|---|---|
| GordStats | 6.1–5.9 | Results so far plus this model's win chance in each game left |
| ESPN FPI | 6.1–5.9 | ESPN's simulation of the full schedule |
Advanced
Offense EPA/play+0.0794th of 138
Defense EPA/play+0.0531st of 138
Success rate40.4%83rd of 138
Success allowed39.8%39th of 138
Explosiveness0.9620th of 138
Defensive havoc16.6%57th of 138
3rd down47.3%28th of 138
Turnover margin/g-0.2084th of 138
Opponent-adjusted where it can be; every team, every figure, on Team Stats.
Schedule
| Opponent | Date | Result | Expected | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 vs Baylor | Sep 5 | W 17–16 | +6.0 | — |
2 vs Southern Miss | Sep 12 | W 43–8 | +20.4 | — |
3 vs Florida | Sep 19 | L 39–44 | +2.1 | — |
4 vs Vanderbilt | Sep 26 | W 21–15 | +3.8 | — |
5 at Tennessee | Oct 3 | L 14–24 | -6.4 | — |
7 at Georgia | Oct 17 | proj 16–34 | -18.1 | 13% |
8 vs LSU | Oct 24 | proj 21–27 | -5.4 | 37% |
9 at Ole Miss | Oct 31 | proj 22–32 | -9.5 | 27% |
10 vs Arkansas | Nov 7 | proj 31–18 | +12.9 | 79% |
11 at Mississippi St | Nov 14 | proj 26–29 | -3.3 | 42% |
12 vs Samford | Nov 21 | proj 56–3 | +53.3 | 100% |
13 at Alabama | Nov 28 | proj 16–36 | -20.1 | 10% |
Games without a final yet show this model's projected score, tagged proj. Expected is this model's margin from this team's side - for a finished game, the one on record before kickoff, so a result can be read against what was expected of it. Win is the chance of winning an upcoming game. How well any of this has worked is on the predictions page.