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Mississippi St at LSU

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

#16 Mississippi St4-1
at
#22 LSU4-2

Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET · ESPN, Disney+

Tiger Stadium (LA) · Baton Rouge, LA

☀️ 63° Mostly sunny · wind 13 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes LSU by 10.8, the book by 16.5: a lean to Mississippi St +16.5.

On the total, GordStats says 59 to the book's 56.5: siding with the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

MSST 25%win chanceLSU 75%
GordStatsLSU by 10.875% to win · MSST 24–LSU 35
DraftKingsLSU -16.5O/U 56.5
ESPN FPILSU 77%win chance
Watch score94Top 25 matchup · Playoff stakes

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Mississippi St's big-play defense (12th) meets LSU's big-play offense (79th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Mississippi St Offense vs LSU Defense

MSST offLSU def
EPA per play
9th+0.225th-0.02
Run EPA
16th+0.1323rd+0.01
Pass EPA
18th+0.312nd+0.03
Success rate
11th48%1st33%
Explosiveness
46th0.9449th0.92
Line yards
44th3.027th2.66
Havoc
63rd14%8th21%
Points per trip
22nd4.6068th3.36
Third downs
34th46%10th28%

Mississippi St: 72 plays a game (25th most) · passes on 52% of plays

LSU Offense vs Mississippi St Defense

LSU offMSST def
EPA per play
23rd+0.1959th+0.08
Run EPA
57th+0.0857th+0.06
Pass EPA
14th+0.3257th+0.16
Success rate
16th47%59th41%
Explosiveness
79th0.9312th0.90
Line yards
86th2.9195th3.02
Havoc
93rd16%43rd17%
Points per trip
37th4.38111th4.03
Third downs
10th52%62nd36%

LSU: 82 plays a game (2nd most) · passes on 46% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Mississippi St

  • QBKamario Taylor+0.39 EPA a dropback · 157 dropbacks · 36th of 130 QBs
  • RBFluff Bothwell+0.28 EPA a carry · 73 carries · 33rd of 194 RBs
  • WRAnthony Evans III+0.85 EPA a target · 47 targets · 56th of 390 WRs
  • WRZion Ragins+0.34 EPA a target · 24 targets · 277th of 390 WRs

LSU

  • QBSam Leavitt+0.40 EPA a dropback · 170 dropbacks · 34th of 130 QBs
  • RBDilin Jones+0.02 EPA a carry · 101 carries · 146th of 194 RBs
  • WRWinston Watkins+0.87 EPA a target · 38 targets · 50th of 390 WRs
  • WRJackson Harris+0.93 EPA a target · 30 targets · 37th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Mississippi St

  • L23-56vs Alabama−26
  • W31-24vs Missouri+3
  • W41-34at South Carolina+10
  • W38-13at Minnesota+26

LSU

  • L34-35at Kentucky−6
  • W63-14vs McNeese−8
  • W35-6vs Texas A&M+27
  • L24-32at Ole Miss−4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).