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Cincinnati at West Virginia

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

Cincinnati4-1
at
West Virginia3-3

Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET · TNT

Milan Puskar Stadium · Morgantown, WV

⛅ 49° Partly sunny · rain 20% · wind 12 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Cincinnati by 3.4, the book has West Virginia by 1.5: a lean to Cincinnati +1.5.

On the total, GordStats says 62 to the book's 63.5: siding with the Under.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

CIN 58%win chanceWVU 42%
GordStatsCIN by 3.458% to win · CIN 33–WVU 29
DraftKingsWVU -1.5O/U 63.5
ESPN FPICIN 60%win chance
Watch score55Toss-up

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • West Virginia's third-down offense (21st) meets Cincinnati's third-down defense (120th).
  • Cincinnati's big-play offense (5th) meets West Virginia's big-play defense (90th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Cincinnati Offense vs West Virginia Defense

CIN offWVU def
EPA per play
46th+0.14130th+0.23
Run EPA
33rd+0.1193rd+0.09
Pass EPA
66th+0.18138th+0.38
Success rate
86th40%125th47%
Explosiveness
5th0.9890th0.94
Line yards
36th3.0549th2.91
Havoc
26th12%74th16%
Points per trip
18th4.6698th3.83
Third downs
25th48%54th35%

Cincinnati: 65 plays a game (94th most) · passes on 44% of plays

West Virginia Offense vs Cincinnati Defense

WVU offCIN def
EPA per play
80th+0.0992nd+0.14
Run EPA
46th+0.0989th+0.08
Pass EPA
111th+0.12107th+0.26
Success rate
80th41%101st44%
Explosiveness
17th0.9655th0.93
Line yards
46th3.02118th3.12
Havoc
36th13%65th16%
Points per trip
42nd4.26122nd4.19
Third downs
21st50%120th46%

West Virginia: 78 plays a game (5th most) · passes on 27% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Cincinnati

  • QBJC French+0.29 EPA a dropback · 123 dropbacks · 60th of 130 QBs
  • RBGi'Bran Payne+0.19 EPA a carry · 58 carries · 66th of 194 RBs
  • WRJaVonnie Gibson+0.83 EPA a target · 24 targets · 61st of 390 WRs
  • WRIsaiah Johnson+0.12 EPA a target · 23 targets · 349th of 390 WRs

West Virginia

  • QBMichael Hawkins Jr.+0.14 EPA a dropback · 117 dropbacks · 102nd of 130 QBs
  • RBCam Cook+0.07 EPA a carry · 150 carries · 127th of 194 RBs
  • WRDJ Epps+0.58 EPA a target · 28 targets · 153rd of 390 WRs
  • WRJaden Bray+0.36 EPA a target · 19 targets · 257th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Cincinnati

  • L7-34at Arizona−21
  • W31-26vs Kansas St+9
  • W35-31vs Miami OH−16
  • W62-10vs W Carolina+10

West Virginia

  • L31-52vs Arizona−12
  • L42-45at Iowa State+9
  • L24-41vs Oklahoma St−24
  • W38-27vs Virginia+24

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).