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Kansas at Kansas St

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

Kansas2-3
at
Kansas St3-2

Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET · FS1

Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Manhattan, KS

☀️ 47° Sunny · gusts 12 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Kansas St by 3, the book by 3.5: siding with Kansas +3.5.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

KU 43%win chanceKSU 57%
GordStatsKSU by 357% to win · KU 26–KSU 29
DraftKingsKSU -3.5O/U 55.5
ESPN FPIKSU 61%win chance
Watch score64Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Kansas' offensive line (12th) meets Kansas St's defensive front (114th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Kansas Offense vs Kansas St Defense

KU offKSU def
EPA per play
44th+0.15104th+0.15
Run EPA
21st+0.12103rd+0.10
Pass EPA
80th+0.1685th+0.22
Success rate
35th45%61st41%
Explosiveness
29th0.95125th0.97
Line yards
12th3.16114th3.09
Havoc
61st14%21st20%
Points per trip
75th3.78112th4.05
Third downs
74th41%70th37%

Kansas: 73 plays a game (19th most) · passes on 47% of plays

Kansas St Offense vs Kansas Defense

KSU offKU def
EPA per play
45th+0.1429th+0.04
Run EPA
17th+0.1243rd+0.04
Pass EPA
85th+0.1671st+0.18
Success rate
36th45%27th38%
Explosiveness
76th0.93114th0.95
Line yards
52nd3.0120th2.79
Havoc
6th9%18th20%
Points per trip
12th4.8765th3.32
Third downs
2nd62%18th30%

Kansas St: 71 plays a game (33rd most) · passes on 50% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Kansas

  • QBIsaiah Marshall+0.27 EPA a dropback · 143 dropbacks · 67th of 130 QBs
  • RBDylan Edwards+0.14 EPA a carry · 57 carries · 90th of 194 RBs
  • WRNik McMillan+0.69 EPA a target · 32 targets · 105th of 390 WRs
  • WRCam Pickett+0.20 EPA a target · 24 targets · 333rd of 390 WRs

Kansas St

  • QBAvery Johnson+0.34 EPA a dropback · 143 dropbacks · 46th of 130 QBs
  • RBRodney Fields Jr.+0.20 EPA a carry · 55 carries · 64th of 194 RBs
  • WRJoshua Manning+0.28 EPA a target · 26 targets · 304th of 390 WRs
  • WRJaron Tibbs+0.63 EPA a target · 25 targets · 131st of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Kansas

  • L24-41at Utah−4
  • W55-0vs MTSU+32
  • L17-24vs Arizona St−2
  • L21-38vs Missouri−13

Kansas St

  • L16-35vs Houston−18
  • L26-31at Cincinnati−9
  • W31-20vs Tulane−3
  • W34-7vs Washington St+16

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).