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Utah at Colorado

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

#11 Utah5-0
at
Colorado2-3

Sat, Oct 17 · 10:15 PM ET · ESPN

Folsom Field · Boulder, CO

☀️ 61° Clear

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Utah by 19.6, the book by 14.5: a lean to Utah -14.5.

On the total, GordStats says 52 to the book's 49.5: siding with the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

UTAH 89%win chanceCOLO 11%
GordStatsUTAH by 19.689% to win · UTAH 36–COLO 16
DraftKingsUTAH -14.5O/U 49.5
ESPN FPIUTAH 88%win chance
Watch score73

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Utah's run defense (12th) meets Colorado's run game (136th).
  • Utah's third-down offense (5th) meets Colorado's third-down defense (73rd).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Utah Offense vs Colorado Defense

UTAH offCOLO def
EPA per play
20th+0.2014th+0.01
Run EPA
11th+0.136th-0.02
Pass EPA
40th+0.2469th+0.18
Success rate
12th48%11th36%
Explosiveness
6th0.979th0.89
Line yards
34th3.065th2.64
Havoc
37th13%13th21%
Points per trip
13th4.8530th2.92
Third downs
5th55%73rd38%

Utah: 70 plays a game (40th most) · passes on 48% of plays

Colorado Offense vs Utah Defense

COLO offUTAH def
EPA per play
131st-0.0224th+0.03
Run EPA
136th-0.0312th+0.00
Pass EPA
118th+0.1043rd+0.14
Success rate
90th40%12th37%
Explosiveness
132nd0.9061st0.93
Line yards
92nd2.8932nd2.85
Havoc
106th17%23rd19%
Points per trip
134th2.0713th2.60
Third downs
105th36%16th30%

Colorado: 75 plays a game (11th most) · passes on 49% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Utah

  • QBDevon Dampier+0.46 EPA a dropback · 128 dropbacks · 20th of 130 QBs
  • RBWayshawn Parker+0.47 EPA a carry · 59 carries · 3rd of 194 RBs
  • WRBraden Pegan+0.59 EPA a target · 34 targets · 149th of 390 WRs
  • WRCreed Whittemore+0.42 EPA a target · 20 targets · 226th of 390 WRs

Colorado

  • QBJulian Lewis+0.19 EPA a dropback · 92 dropbacks · 92nd of 130 QBs
  • RBMicah Welch+0.01 EPA a carry · 36 carries · 152nd of 194 RBs
  • WRJoseph Williams+0.64 EPA a target · 52 targets · 127th of 390 WRs
  • WRDeAndre Moore Jr.+0.21 EPA a target · 32 targets · 326th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Utah

  • W41-24vs Kansas+4
  • W31-17at Iowa State+7
  • W33-0vs Utah State+2
  • W43-10vs Arkansas+14

Colorado

  • L7-29vs Texas Tech−6
  • L13-23at Baylor+3
  • L7-41at Northwestern−32
  • W52-21vs Weber St−6

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).