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Louisville at Syracuse

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

Louisville3-3
at
Syracuse2-3

Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET · ACC Network

JMA Wireless Dome · Syracuse, NY

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Louisville by 9.8, the book by 14.5: a lean to Syracuse +14.5.

On the total, GordStats says 59 to the book's 55.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

LOU 73%win chanceSYR 27%
GordStatsLOU by 9.873% to win · LOU 34–SYR 25
DraftKingsLOU -14.5O/U 55.5
ESPN FPILOU 76%win chance
Watch score67

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Louisville's big-play offense (1st) meets Syracuse's big-play defense (104th).
  • Louisville's big-play defense (5th) meets Syracuse's big-play offense (69th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Louisville Offense vs Syracuse Defense

LOU offSYR def
EPA per play
25th+0.1967th+0.11
Run EPA
18th+0.12111th+0.11
Pass EPA
39th+0.2414th+0.09
Success rate
41st44%92nd44%
Explosiveness
1st1.00104th0.95
Line yards
98th2.8787th3.00
Havoc
85th15%36th18%
Points per trip
46th4.2067th3.33
Third downs
37th45%44th33%

Louisville: 64 plays a game (103rd most) · passes on 45% of plays

Syracuse Offense vs Louisville Defense

SYR offLOU def
EPA per play
92nd+0.0776th+0.11
Run EPA
66th+0.0746th+0.05
Pass EPA
74th+0.17112th+0.27
Success rate
70th41%55th41%
Explosiveness
69th0.935th0.88
Line yards
106th2.83112th3.09
Havoc
40th13%103rd14%
Points per trip
89th3.6069th3.37
Third downs
31st47%74th38%

Syracuse: 82 plays a game (3rd most) · passes on 48% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Louisville

  • QBLincoln Kienholz+0.45 EPA a dropback · 163 dropbacks · 25th of 130 QBs
  • RBIsaac Brown+0.16 EPA a carry · 71 carries · 79th of 194 RBs
  • WRTre Richardson+0.78 EPA a target · 37 targets · 76th of 390 WRs
  • WRTreyshun Hurry+0.51 EPA a target · 34 targets · 183rd of 390 WRs

Syracuse

  • QBSteven Angeli+0.08 EPA a dropback · 95 dropbacks · 114th of 130 QBs
  • RBTylik Hill+0.26 EPA a carry · 62 carries · 40th of 194 RBs
  • WRUmari Hatcher+0.55 EPA a target · 52 targets · 167th of 390 WRs
  • WRJustus Ross-Simmons+0.66 EPA a target · 16 targets · 112th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Louisville

  • W44-20vs Florida St+21
  • L28-31at NC State−4
  • L27-30vs Wake Forest−16
  • W41-31vs SMU+8

Syracuse

  • L25-28at Virginia+7
  • W42-41at UConn+7
  • L13-27at Pitt+4
  • L18-21vs California−10

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).