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Louisville
Updated Thu, Oct 15 · 11:35 PM ET
3–3 · 29th of 138
Rated +11.7 points vs an average FBS team · scoring +4.6 vs the average game
Projected Record
| Source | W–L | How |
|---|---|---|
| GordStats | 7.0–5.0 | Results so far plus this model's win chance in each game left |
| ESPN FPI | 7.1–5.0 | ESPN's simulation of the full schedule |
Advanced
Offense EPA/play+0.1925th of 138
Defense EPA/play+0.1176th of 138
Success rate44.3%41st of 138
Success allowed40.7%55th of 138
Explosiveness1.001st of 138
Defensive havoc14.0%103rd of 138
3rd down45.5%37th of 138
Turnover margin/g+0.8322nd of 138
Opponent-adjusted where it can be; every team, every figure, on Team Stats.
Schedule
| Opponent | Date | Result | Expected | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 vs Ole Miss | Sep 6 | L 38–41 | -8.9 | — |
2 vs Villanova | Sep 11 | W 59–13 | +47.9 | — |
3 vs SMU | Sep 19 | W 41–31 | +2.0 | — |
4 vs Wake Forest | Sep 26 | L 27–30 | +13.2 | — |
5 at NC State | Oct 3 | L 28–31 | +1.4 | — |
6 vs Florida St | Oct 9 | W 44–20 | +3.1 | — |
7 at Syracuse | Oct 17 | proj 34–25 | +9.8 | 73% |
9 vs Stanford | Oct 31 | proj 42–16 | +26.4 | 95% |
10 at Georgia Tech | Nov 7 | proj 33–26 | +6.9 | 67% |
11 at North Carolina | Nov 14 | proj 28–23 | +5.0 | 62% |
12 vs Pitt | Nov 21 | proj 30–27 | +3.5 | 59% |
13 at Kentucky | Nov 28 | proj 28–31 | -2.9 | 43% |
Games without a final yet show this model's projected score, tagged proj. Expected is this model's margin from this team's side - for a finished game, the one on record before kickoff, so a result can be read against what was expected of it. Win is the chance of winning an upcoming game. How well any of this has worked is on the predictions page.