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North Carolina
Updated Thu, Oct 15 · 11:35 PM ET
3–2 · 58th of 138
Rated +3.8 points vs an average FBS team · scoring -5.2 vs the average game
Projected Record
| Source | W–L | How |
|---|---|---|
| GordStats | 6.1–5.9 | Results so far plus this model's win chance in each game left |
| ESPN FPI | 6.9–5.2 | ESPN's simulation of the full schedule |
Advanced
Offense EPA/play+0.1070th of 138
Defense EPA/play+0.0649th of 138
Success rate44.2%42nd of 138
Success allowed42.1%75th of 138
Explosiveness0.90126th of 138
Defensive havoc12.7%122nd of 138
3rd down38.2%84th of 138
Turnover margin/g-0.2090th of 138
Opponent-adjusted where it can be; every team, every figure, on Team Stats.
Schedule
| Opponent | Date | Result | Expected | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 vs TCU | Aug 29 | W 15–10 | -3.8* | — |
2 vs ETSU | Sep 12 | W 35–3 | +35.6 | — |
3 at Clemson | Sep 19 | L 20–28 | -10.0 | — |
5 vs Notre Dame | Oct 3 | L 26–37 | -20.7 | — |
6 at Pitt | Oct 10 | W 21–17 | -13.1 | — |
7 at Duke | Oct 17 | proj 21–27 | -6.6 | 34% |
8 vs Syracuse | Oct 24 | proj 29–21 | +7.7 | 69% |
9 vs Miami | Oct 31 | proj 15–34 | -18.4 | 12% |
10 at UConn | Nov 7 | proj 27–26 | +1.1 | 53% |
11 vs Louisville | Nov 14 | proj 23–28 | -5.0 | 38% |
12 at Virginia | Nov 21 | proj 21–25 | -3.7 | 41% |
13 vs NC State | Nov 28 | proj 28–24 | +4.7 | 62% |
Games without a final yet show this model's projected score, tagged proj. Expected is this model's margin from this team's side - for a finished game, the one on record before kickoff, so a result can be read against what was expected of it. * No call was on record for that game: today's model, which has seen the result. Win is the chance of winning an upcoming game. How well any of this has worked is on the predictions page.