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North Carolina at Duke

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

North Carolina3-2
at
Duke4-1

Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET · ESPN2

Wallace Wade Stadium · Durham, NC

☁️ 55° Cloudy · rain 47% · wind 10 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Duke by 6.6, the book by 3: a lean to Duke -3.

On the total, GordStats says 48 to the book's 46.5: siding with the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

UNC 34%win chanceDUKE 66%
GordStatsDUKE by 6.666% to win · UNC 21–DUKE 27
DraftKingsDUKE -3O/U 46.5
ESPN FPIDUKE 54%win chance
Watch score70Toss-up

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Duke's big-play defense (20th) meets North Carolina's big-play offense (126th).
  • Duke's third-down offense (30th) meets North Carolina's third-down defense (110th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

North Carolina Offense vs Duke Defense

UNC offDUKE def
EPA per play
70th+0.1043rd+0.06
Run EPA
96th+0.0428th+0.03
Pass EPA
60th+0.2049th+0.15
Success rate
42nd44%67th41%
Explosiveness
126th0.9020th0.91
Line yards
67th2.9750th2.91
Havoc
104th16%53rd17%
Points per trip
52nd4.1234th2.95
Third downs
84th38%11th28%

North Carolina: 57 plays a game (135th most) · passes on 52% of plays

Duke Offense vs North Carolina Defense

DUKE offUNC def
EPA per play
56th+0.1149th+0.06
Run EPA
43rd+0.0995th+0.09
Pass EPA
65th+0.1929th+0.11
Success rate
99th40%75th42%
Explosiveness
8th0.9746th0.92
Line yards
70th2.96117th3.12
Havoc
7th10%122nd13%
Points per trip
25th4.5751st3.16
Third downs
30th47%110th43%

Duke: 72 plays a game (27th most) · passes on 42% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

North Carolina

  • QBBilly Edwards+0.20 EPA a dropback · 139 dropbacks · 91st of 130 QBs
  • RBBenjamin Hall-0.03 EPA a carry · 56 carries · 164th of 194 RBs
  • TEJelani Thurman+0.22 EPA a target · 37 targets · 82nd of 114 TEs
  • WRJordan Shipp+0.86 EPA a target · 25 targets · 53rd of 390 WRs

Duke

  • QBWalker Eget+0.39 EPA a dropback · 131 dropbacks · 37th of 130 QBs
  • RBNate Sheppard+0.32 EPA a carry · 113 carries · 20th of 194 RBs
  • TEJeremiah Hasley+0.55 EPA a target · 32 targets · 46th of 114 TEs
  • WRJonah Burton+0.47 EPA a target · 22 targets · 198th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

North Carolina

  • W21-17at Pitt+17
  • L26-37vs Notre Dame+10
  • L20-28at Clemson+2
  • W35-3vs ETSU−4

Duke

  • L25-28at Georgia Tech−7
  • W62-7vs William & Mary+9
  • W35-7vs Stanford+10
  • W31-27at Illinois+6

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).