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N Illinois at Wyoming

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

N Illinois0-5
at
Wyoming3-3

Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET · CW

War Memorial Stadium · Laramie, WY

☀️ 64° Mostly sunny · wind 14 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Wyoming by 1.8, the book by 7.5: a lean to N Illinois +7.5.

On the total, GordStats says 36 to the book's 41.5: a lean to the Under.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

NIU 45%win chanceWYO 55%
GordStatsWYO by 1.855% to win · NIU 17–WYO 19
DraftKingsWYO -7.5O/U 41.5
ESPN FPIWYO 63%win chance
Watch score10Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Wyoming's offensive line (6th) meets N Illinois' defensive front (120th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

N Illinois Offense vs Wyoming Defense

NIU offWYO def
EPA per play
124th+0.01112th+0.16
Run EPA
120th+0.01115th+0.12
Pass EPA
104th+0.1378th+0.20
Success rate
102nd39%129th47%
Explosiveness
62nd0.9340th0.92
Line yards
89th2.90115th3.09
Havoc
113th17%92nd15%
Points per trip
137th1.6453rd3.18
Third downs
122nd31%88th39%

N Illinois: 62 plays a game (119th most) · passes on 56% of plays

Wyoming Offense vs N Illinois Defense

WYO offNIU def
EPA per play
82nd+0.08108th+0.16
Run EPA
29th+0.11126th+0.14
Pass EPA
128th+0.0755th+0.15
Success rate
63rd42%117th46%
Explosiveness
123rd0.90115th0.95
Line yards
6th3.22120th3.13
Havoc
97th16%137th10%
Points per trip
125th2.71102nd3.91
Third downs
127th31%138th62%

Wyoming: 62 plays a game (121st most) · passes on 39% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

N Illinois

  • QBTaron Dickens+0.07 EPA a dropback · 132 dropbacks · 116th of 130 QBs
  • RBTelly Johnson Jr.+0.10 EPA a carry · 56 carries · 112th of 194 RBs
  • WRDeAree Rogers+0.42 EPA a target · 47 targets · 227th of 390 WRs
  • WRLa'Don Bryant-0.11 EPA a target · 25 targets · 383rd of 390 WRs

Wyoming

  • QBTyler Hughes-0.02 EPA a dropback · 138 dropbacks · 127th of 130 QBs
  • RBSamuel Harris+0.12 EPA a carry · 63 carries · 104th of 194 RBs
  • TEJake Wilson+0.17 EPA a target · 28 targets · 93rd of 114 TEs
  • WRCharlie Coenen+0.29 EPA a target · 18 targets · 301st of 390 WRs

Recent Form

N Illinois

  • L7-28vs Air Force−16
  • L14-35at Georgia St−7
  • L17-42at Arizona+6
  • L24-28vs Illinois St−25

Wyoming

  • W16-13at San José St+9
  • L0-28at N Dakota St−10
  • W27-10vs Hawai'i+22
  • L10-24at C Michigan−11

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).