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Liberty at Kennesaw St

Week 8 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

Liberty5-1
at
Kennesaw St1-5

Thu, Oct 22 · 7:00 PM ET · CBSSN

Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium · Kennesaw, GA

☀️ 70° Clear

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Liberty by 5.8, the book by 8.5: siding with Kennesaw St +8.5.

On the total, GordStats says 47 to the book's 47.5: siding with the Under.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

LIB 64%win chanceKENN 36%
GordStatsLIB by 5.864% to win · LIB 26–KENN 20
DraftKingsLIB -8.5O/U 47.5
ESPN FPILIB 79%win chance
Watch score40Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Liberty's offensive line (13th) meets Kennesaw St's defensive front (103rd).
  • Liberty's third-down defense (13th) meets Kennesaw St's third-down offense (71st).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Liberty Offense vs Kennesaw St Defense

LIB offKENN def
EPA per play
29th+0.17117th+0.17
Run EPA
15th+0.1390th+0.09
Pass EPA
37th+0.24114th+0.28
Success rate
19th47%114th46%
Explosiveness
112th0.9150th0.92
Line yards
13th3.15103rd3.04
Havoc
58th14%117th13%
Points per trip
82nd3.7287th3.65
Third downs
41st45%82nd39%

Liberty: 65 plays a game (91st most) · passes on 36% of plays

Kennesaw St Offense vs Liberty Defense

KENN offLIB def
EPA per play
75th+0.0936th+0.05
Run EPA
69th+0.0673rd+0.07
Pass EPA
68th+0.1821st+0.11
Success rate
89th40%26th38%
Explosiveness
81st0.9385th0.94
Line yards
38th3.0594th3.02
Havoc
45th13%26th19%
Points per trip
44th4.248th2.33
Third downs
71st41%13th29%

Kennesaw St: 67 plays a game (73rd most) · passes on 51% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Liberty

  • QBDeshawn Purdie+0.31 EPA a dropback · 117 dropbacks · 51st of 130 QBs
  • RBKam Davis+0.44 EPA a carry · 70 carries · 4th of 194 RBs
  • WRMakai Jackson+1.25 EPA a target · 28 targets · 3rd of 390 WRs
  • WRJamari Person+0.57 EPA a target · 17 targets · 160th of 390 WRs

Kennesaw St

  • QBRickie Collins+0.17 EPA a dropback · 172 dropbacks · 96th of 130 QBs
  • RBAlan Woods III+0.18 EPA a carry · 58 carries · 73rd of 194 RBs
  • WRBrayden Munroe+0.52 EPA a target · 26 targets · 182nd of 390 WRs
  • WRJavon Rogers+0.64 EPA a target · 24 targets · 129th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Liberty

  • W35-3vs Sam Houston+20
  • W30-14at Delaware+13
  • W34-17at Coastal+18
  • W51-15vs Ball State+21

Kennesaw St

  • L21-24at Missouri St−8
  • L26-27vs Jax State−3
  • L14-17at Arkansas St−1
  • L9-42at Tennessee−6

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).