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Louisiana Tech at UL Monroe

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

Louisiana Tech3-2
at
UL Monroe0-5

Sat, Oct 17 · 8:00 PM ET · ESPN+

Malone Stadium · Monroe, LA

☀️ 65° Mostly clear · gusts 12 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Louisiana Tech by 17.4, the book by 15.5: siding with Louisiana Tech -15.5.

On the total, GordStats says 58 to the book's 55.5: siding with the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

LT 86%win chanceULM 14%
GordStatsLT by 17.486% to win · LT 38–ULM 20
DraftKingsLT -15.5O/U 55.5
ESPN FPILT 89%win chance
Watch score18

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Louisiana Tech's big-play offense (9th) meets UL Monroe's big-play defense (116th).
  • Louisiana Tech's defensive front (26th) meets UL Monroe's offensive line (84th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Louisiana Tech Offense vs UL Monroe Defense

LT offULM def
EPA per play
91st+0.07133rd+0.23
Run EPA
104th+0.03136th+0.16
Pass EPA
71st+0.17126th+0.30
Success rate
75th41%134th48%
Explosiveness
9th0.97116th0.96
Line yards
121st2.77134th3.23
Havoc
90th16%134th11%
Points per trip
56th4.06127th4.32
Third downs
50th44%136th52%

Louisiana Tech: 66 plays a game (80th most) · passes on 51% of plays

UL Monroe Offense vs Louisiana Tech Defense

ULM offLT def
EPA per play
102nd+0.0564th+0.09
Run EPA
115th+0.02104th+0.10
Pass EPA
59th+0.2020th+0.11
Success rate
110th39%44th40%
Explosiveness
99th0.92134th0.98
Line yards
84th2.9226th2.82
Havoc
120th17%9th21%
Points per trip
110th3.1778th3.50
Third downs
121st31%91st40%

UL Monroe: 68 plays a game (62nd most) · passes on 52% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Louisiana Tech

  • QBBlake Baker+0.45 EPA a dropback · 73 dropbacks
  • RBDylone Brooks+0.48 EPA a carry · 19 carries
  • WRJalen Mickens+0.57 EPA a target · 38 targets · 159th of 390 WRs
  • TEEli Finley+0.71 EPA a target · 35 targets · 28th of 114 TEs

UL Monroe

  • QBAidan Armenta+0.32 EPA a dropback · 99 dropbacks · 50th of 130 QBs
  • RBBryson Roland-0.28 EPA a carry · 30 carries
  • WRMarcellus Jackson+0.57 EPA a target · 25 targets · 154th of 390 WRs
  • WRNic Trujillo+0.13 EPA a target · 23 targets · 344th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Louisiana Tech

  • W32-31vs Louisiana−5
  • W31-29vs Army+2
  • L19-36at Baylor−9
  • L14-45at LSU−14

UL Monroe

  • L35-52at South Alabama0
  • L17-45vs FAU−19
  • L35-38vs SE Louisiana−19
  • L20-26at UAB+7

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).