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Rams at Cardinals

Week 10 preview

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 11:46 AM ET

Rams5-4
at
Cardinals3-6

Sun, Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET · CBS

State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Rams by 11.5, the book by 9.5 — 2 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats says 48 to the book's 39.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

LAR 81%win chanceARI 19%
GordStatsLAR by 11.581% to win · LAR 30–ARI 18
DraftKingsLAR -9.5O/U 39.5
Assumes outGardner MinshewCardinals quarterback
ESPNLAR 87%win chance
Watch score51

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Rams' red-zone defense (6th) meets Cardinals' red-zone offense (30th).
  • Rams' scoring offense (12th) meets Cardinals' scoring defense (30th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense

LAR offARI def
EPA per play
11th+0.0627th+0.08
Pass EPA
16th+0.1031st+0.29
Run EPA
7th-0.012nd-0.20
Success rate
5th48%19th44%
Explosive plays
15th8%14th8%
Points per drive
12th2.2130th2.62
Red zone TD
6th67%22nd67%
Third downs
13th41%20th41%
Sacks
3rd4%15th7%
Turnovers
26th14%30th7%

Rams: 30.6 sec a snap (4th fastest) · passes 7% more than expected

Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense

ARI offLAR def
EPA per play
21st-0.025th-0.08
Pass EPA
23rd+0.009th+0.00
Run EPA
13th-0.076th-0.18
Success rate
14th44%9th42%
Explosive plays
31st5%8th7%
Points per drive
24th1.827th1.83
Red zone TD
30th43%6th43%
Third downs
16th38%4th32%
Sacks
15th6%27th5%
Turnovers
8th8%18th11%

Cardinals: 32.4 sec a snap (22nd fastest) · passes 0% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Rams

  • QBMatthew Stafford+0.11 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.1 · 340 dropbacks · 13th of 31
  • RBKyren Williams+0.02 EPA a carry · 4.8 yds · 102 carries · 9th of 38
  • WRDavante Adams+0.48 EPA a target · 61% caught · 46 targets · 21st in EPA

Cardinals

  • QBJacoby Brissett-0.06 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.0 · 289 dropbacks · 25th of 31
  • RBTyler Allgeier-0.08 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 85 carries · 20th of 38

Recent Form

Rams

  • W20–13at Commanders+2
  • W24–9vs Chargers+8
  • W35–21at Raiders+8
  • L16–18vs Cardinals−13

Cardinals

  • L3–17at Seahawks−3
  • W33–30at Cowboys+8
  • L16–30vs Broncos−9
  • W18–16at Rams+13

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.