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Missouri at Ole Miss

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

#13 Missouri5-1
at
#9 Ole Miss4-1

Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET · SEC Network

Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Oxford, MS

☀️ 64° Sunny · wind 12 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Ole Miss by 6.2, the book by 5.5: siding with Ole Miss -5.5.

On the total, GordStats says 57 to the book's 58.5: siding with the Under.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

MIZ 35%win chanceMISS 65%
GordStatsMISS by 6.265% to win · MIZ 25–MISS 31
DraftKingsMISS -5.5O/U 58.5
ESPN FPIMISS 58%win chance
Watch score94Top 25 matchup · Upset watch · Playoff stakes

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Missouri's third-down offense (57th) meets Ole Miss' third-down defense (124th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Missouri Offense vs Ole Miss Defense

MIZ offMISS def
EPA per play
40th+0.1584th+0.12
Run EPA
54th+0.0894th+0.09
Pass EPA
26th+0.2882nd+0.21
Success rate
79th41%99th44%
Explosiveness
35th0.9564th0.93
Line yards
97th2.8755th2.91
Havoc
95th16%67th16%
Points per trip
71st3.8397th3.79
Third downs
57th43%124th46%

Missouri: 70 plays a game (38th most) · passes on 45% of plays

Ole Miss Offense vs Missouri Defense

MISS offMIZ def
EPA per play
12th+0.219th-0.01
Run EPA
23rd+0.127th-0.02
Pass EPA
11th+0.3335th+0.13
Success rate
2nd51%7th35%
Explosiveness
94th0.9271st0.93
Line yards
45th3.024th2.61
Havoc
38th13%4th22%
Points per trip
9th4.9440th3.00
Third downs
49th44%34th32%

Ole Miss: 68 plays a game (58th most) · passes on 55% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Missouri

  • QBAustin Simmons+0.45 EPA a dropback · 166 dropbacks · 24th of 130 QBs
  • RBJamal Roberts+0.17 EPA a carry · 136 carries · 76th of 194 RBs
  • WRCayden Lee+0.74 EPA a target · 54 targets · 88th of 390 WRs
  • WRDonovan Olugbode+0.87 EPA a target · 39 targets · 52nd of 390 WRs

Ole Miss

  • QBTrinidad Chambliss+0.47 EPA a dropback · 166 dropbacks · 18th of 130 QBs
  • RBKewan Lacy+0.31 EPA a carry · 46 carries · 22nd of 194 RBs
  • WRDeuce Alexander+0.86 EPA a target · 37 targets · 54th of 390 WRs
  • WRHoratio Fields+0.54 EPA a target · 22 targets · 172nd of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Missouri

  • W27-6vs Texas A&M+20
  • W45-17vs Florida+30
  • L24-31at Mississippi St−3
  • W27-17vs Troy−17

Ole Miss

  • W52-17at Vanderbilt+32
  • L28-52at Florida−25
  • W32-24vs LSU+4
  • W41-9vs Charlotte−14

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).