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Kentucky at Oklahoma

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

#15 Kentucky5-1
at
Oklahoma3-2

Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET · SEC Network

Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)

☀️ 58° Mostly sunny

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Oklahoma by 7.1, the book by 6.5: siding with Oklahoma -6.5.

On the total, GordStats says 47 to the book's 43.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

UK 33%win chanceOU 67%
GordStatsOU by 7.167% to win · UK 20–OU 27
DraftKingsOU -6.5O/U 43.5
ESPN FPIOU 68%win chance
Watch score87Playoff stakes

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Oklahoma's third-down defense (3rd) meets Kentucky's third-down offense (135th).
  • Kentucky's run defense (47th) meets Oklahoma's run game (138th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Kentucky Offense vs Oklahoma Defense

UK offOU def
EPA per play
42nd+0.152nd-0.05
Run EPA
22nd+0.1217th+0.00
Pass EPA
83rd+0.166th+0.07
Success rate
10th48%3rd34%
Explosiveness
58th0.94107th0.95
Line yards
26th3.0914th2.74
Havoc
41st13%14th20%
Points per trip
54th4.1010th2.39
Third downs
135th27%3rd23%

Kentucky: 67 plays a game (76th most) · passes on 48% of plays

Oklahoma Offense vs Kentucky Defense

OU offUK def
EPA per play
110th+0.0423rd+0.03
Run EPA
138th-0.0547th+0.05
Pass EPA
31st+0.2537th+0.13
Success rate
67th41%72nd42%
Explosiveness
136th0.8882nd0.94
Line yards
124th2.7652nd2.91
Havoc
118th17%35th18%
Points per trip
109th3.2296th3.78
Third downs
128th30%129th47%

Oklahoma: 63 plays a game (111th most) · passes on 49% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Kentucky

  • QBKenny Minchey+0.22 EPA a dropback · 180 dropbacks · 79th of 130 QBs
  • RBCJ Baxter Jr.+0.27 EPA a carry · 84 carries · 34th of 194 RBs
  • WRKenny Darby+0.44 EPA a target · 42 targets · 216th of 390 WRs
  • TEWillie Rodriguez+0.23 EPA a target · 33 targets · 79th of 114 TEs

Oklahoma

  • QBJohn Mateer+0.30 EPA a dropback · 133 dropbacks · 56th of 130 QBs
  • RBLloyd Avant+0.09 EPA a carry · 43 carries · 120th of 194 RBs
  • WRIsaiah Sategna+0.42 EPA a target · 40 targets · 230th of 390 WRs
  • TERocky Beers+0.91 EPA a target · 24 targets · 16th of 114 TEs

Recent Form

Kentucky

  • W35-34vs LSU+6
  • W35-34at South Carolina+3
  • W45-21vs South Alabama+9
  • W31-21at Texas A&M+37

Oklahoma

  • W27-24vs Texas+9
  • L13-41at Georgia−16
  • W14-6vs New Mexico−10
  • L10-17at Michigan−10

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).