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Alabama at Tennessee

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

#6 Alabama5-1
at
#14 Tennessee5-1

Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET · ABC

Neyland Stadium · Knoxville, TN

☀️ 58° Mostly sunny · wind 13 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Alabama by 11.3, the book by 7.5: a lean to Alabama -7.5.

On the total, GordStats says 58 to the book's 50.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

ALA 76%win chanceTENN 24%
GordStatsALA by 11.376% to win · ALA 35–TENN 23
DraftKingsALA -7.5O/U 50.5
ESPN FPIALA 71%win chance
Watch score99Top 25 matchup · Playoff stakes

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Alabama's pass defense (33rd) meets Tennessee's passing game (125th).
  • Alabama's big-play offense (14th) meets Tennessee's big-play defense (94th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Alabama Offense vs Tennessee Defense

ALA offTENN def
EPA per play
4th+0.2617th+0.02
Run EPA
2nd+0.1759th+0.06
Pass EPA
17th+0.3110th+0.08
Success rate
6th49%51st41%
Explosiveness
14th0.9694th0.94
Line yards
19th3.1272nd2.96
Havoc
98th16%6th22%
Points per trip
3rd5.2711th2.42
Third downs
24th49%43rd33%

Alabama: 65 plays a game (95th most) · passes on 49% of plays

Tennessee Offense vs Alabama Defense

TENN offALA def
EPA per play
58th+0.113rd-0.05
Run EPA
4th+0.161st-0.06
Pass EPA
125th+0.0933rd+0.12
Success rate
56th42%2nd34%
Explosiveness
21st0.9569th0.93
Line yards
9th3.183rd2.49
Havoc
99th16%22nd20%
Points per trip
28th4.4795th3.78
Third downs
101st36%29th32%

Tennessee: 70 plays a game (44th most) · passes on 40% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Alabama

  • QBKeelon Russell+0.42 EPA a dropback · 169 dropbacks · 28th of 130 QBs
  • RBDaniel Hill+0.12 EPA a carry · 55 carries · 105th of 194 RBs
  • WRLotzeir Brooks+0.69 EPA a target · 30 targets · 100th of 390 WRs
  • WRRyan Williams+0.78 EPA a target · 28 targets · 75th of 390 WRs

Tennessee

  • QBFaizon Brandon+0.00 EPA a dropback · 124 dropbacks · 125th of 130 QBs
  • RBDeSean Bishop+0.29 EPA a carry · 100 carries · 26th of 194 RBs
  • WRMike Matthews+0.40 EPA a target · 37 targets · 239th of 390 WRs
  • WRBraylon Staley+0.05 EPA a target · 36 targets · 367th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Alabama

  • L17-20vs Georgia−10
  • W56-23at Mississippi St+26
  • W49-18vs South Carolina+13
  • W50-36vs Florida St−6

Tennessee

  • W24-17at Arkansas−4
  • W24-14vs Auburn+4
  • L17-20vs Texas−1
  • W42-9vs Kennesaw St+6

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).