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Florida at Texas

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

Florida4-2
at
#7 Texas4-1

Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET · ABC

DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Austin, TX

☀️ 59° Mostly sunny · gusts 16 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Texas by 13.5, the book by 11.5: siding with Texas -11.5.

On the total, GordStats says 54 to the book's 51.5: siding with the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

FLA 20%win chanceTEX 80%
GordStatsTEX by 13.580% to win · FLA 20–TEX 34
DraftKingsTEX -11.5O/U 51.5
ESPN FPITEX 88%win chance
Watch score87

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Texas' third-down offense (44th) meets Florida's third-down defense (127th).
  • Texas' defensive front (6th) meets Florida's offensive line (81st).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Florida Offense vs Texas Defense

FLA offTEX def
EPA per play
15th+0.2110th+0.00
Run EPA
28th+0.1114th+0.00
Pass EPA
23rd+0.2913th+0.09
Success rate
20th47%5th35%
Explosiveness
55th0.9430th0.91
Line yards
81st2.936th2.66
Havoc
30th12%11th21%
Points per trip
5th5.007th2.27
Third downs
35th46%22nd31%

Florida: 71 plays a game (32nd most) · passes on 42% of plays

Texas Offense vs Florida Defense

TEX offFLA def
EPA per play
60th+0.1190th+0.13
Run EPA
77th+0.0663rd+0.06
Pass EPA
38th+0.24110th+0.27
Success rate
40th44%87th43%
Explosiveness
131st0.9095th0.94
Line yards
78th2.9339th2.87
Havoc
111th17%30th18%
Points per trip
43rd4.25125th4.24
Third downs
44th45%127th47%

Texas: 71 plays a game (34th most) · passes on 48% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Florida

  • QBAaron Philo+0.41 EPA a dropback · 137 dropbacks · 30th of 130 QBs
  • RBJadan Baugh+0.28 EPA a carry · 103 carries · 31st of 194 RBs
  • WRDallas Wilson+1.02 EPA a target · 31 targets · 20th of 390 WRs
  • WRBailey Stockton+0.80 EPA a target · 22 targets · 71st of 390 WRs

Texas

  • QBArch Manning+0.20 EPA a dropback · 158 dropbacks · 88th of 130 QBs
  • RBDaylan Smothers+0.14 EPA a carry · 52 carries · 92nd of 194 RBs
  • WRRyan Wingo+0.86 EPA a target · 30 targets · 55th of 390 WRs
  • WRCam Coleman+0.80 EPA a target · 27 targets · 70th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Florida

  • L19-38vs South Carolina−25
  • L17-45at Missouri−30
  • W52-28vs Ole Miss+25
  • W44-39at Auburn+7

Texas

  • L24-27vs Oklahoma−9
  • W20-17at Tennessee+1
  • W30-6vs UTSA−3
  • W24-23vs Ohio State+4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).