Follow teams and keep your fantasy leagues on every device.

Sign inWhat you get

Arkansas at Vanderbilt

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 11:33 AM ET

Arkansas2-4
at
Vanderbilt3-3

Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET · ESPN2

FirstBank Stadium · Nashville, TN

☀️ 58° Sunny · gusts 21 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Vanderbilt by 6.1, the book by 6 — they agree, no lean.

On the total, GordStats says 54 to the book's 49.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

ARK 35%win chanceVAN 65%
GordStatsVAN by 6.165% to win · ARK 24–VAN 30
DraftKingsVAN -6O/U 49.5
ESPN FPIVAN 56%win chance
Watch score54Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Vanderbilt's defensive front (35th) meets Arkansas' offensive line (112th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Arkansas Offense vs Vanderbilt Defense

ARK offVAN def
EPA per play
96th+0.0680th+0.12
Run EPA
118th+0.0261st+0.06
Pass EPA
103rd+0.1488th+0.23
Success rate
66th41%83rd42%
Explosiveness
113th0.9137th0.92
Line yards
112th2.8135th2.86
Havoc
127th19%83rd15%
Points per trip
106th3.29109th4.00
Third downs
69th41%87th39%

Arkansas: 69 plays a game (46th most) · passes on 51% of plays

Vanderbilt Offense vs Arkansas Defense

VAN offARK def
EPA per play
111th+0.0496th+0.14
Run EPA
73rd+0.06113th+0.11
Pass EPA
81st+0.1686th+0.23
Success rate
107th39%90th43%
Explosiveness
66th0.9378th0.93
Line yards
99th2.8798th3.03
Havoc
101st16%112th13%
Points per trip
116th3.00133rd4.74
Third downs
87th38%107th42%

Vanderbilt: 66 plays a game (83rd most) · passes on 49% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Arkansas

  • QBKJ Jackson+0.20 EPA a dropback · 161 dropbacks · 89th of 130 QBs
  • RBSutton Smith-0.14 EPA a carry · 43 carries · 187th of 194 RBs
  • WRChris Marshall+0.73 EPA a target · 52 targets · 89th of 390 WRs
  • WRCJ Brown-0.01 EPA a target · 14 targets

Vanderbilt

  • QBJared Curtis+0.23 EPA a dropback · 121 dropbacks · 77th of 130 QBs
  • RBSedrick Alexander+0.13 EPA a carry · 47 carries · 96th of 194 RBs
  • WRJunior Sherrill+0.68 EPA a target · 45 targets · 107th of 390 WRs
  • TEJayvontay Conner+0.22 EPA a target · 20 targets · 84th of 114 TEs

Recent Form

Arkansas

  • L17-24vs Tennessee+4
  • L7-34at Texas A&M−11
  • W34-6vs Tulsa+18
  • L17-45vs Georgia−11

Vanderbilt

  • L17-52vs Ole Miss−32
  • L14-38at Georgia−3
  • L15-21at Auburn−2
  • W35-31vs NC State−2

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).