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Notre Dame at BYU

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

#2 Notre Dame6-0
at
#8 BYU5-0

Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET · ABC

LaVell Edwards Stadium · Provo, UT

☀️ 67° Mostly sunny

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Notre Dame by 10.1, the book by 10.5 — they agree, no lean.

On the total, GordStats says 53 to the book's 46.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

ND 74%win chanceBYU 26%
GordStatsND by 10.174% to win · ND 31–BYU 21
DraftKingsND -10.5O/U 46.5
ESPN FPIND 79%win chance
Watch score99Top 25 matchup · Playoff stakes

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • BYU's big-play defense (58th) meets Notre Dame's big-play offense (108th).
  • Notre Dame's pass defense (22nd) meets BYU's passing game (70th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Notre Dame Offense vs BYU Defense

ND offBYU def
EPA per play
3rd+0.2618th+0.02
Run EPA
13th+0.1339th+0.04
Pass EPA
6th+0.387th+0.07
Success rate
3rd51%25th38%
Explosiveness
108th0.9158th0.93
Line yards
29th3.0844th2.89
Havoc
9th10%17th20%
Points per trip
2nd5.3763rd3.25
Third downs
43rd45%56th35%

Notre Dame: 69 plays a game (49th most) · passes on 43% of plays

BYU Offense vs Notre Dame Defense

BYU offND def
EPA per play
28th+0.176th-0.01
Run EPA
7th+0.153rd-0.04
Pass EPA
70th+0.1722nd+0.11
Success rate
31st45%8th35%
Explosiveness
23rd0.9542nd0.92
Line yards
21st3.1013th2.74
Havoc
2nd8%3rd23%
Points per trip
8th4.9715th2.70
Third downs
7th54%51st35%

BYU: 62 plays a game (116th most) · passes on 43% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Notre Dame

  • QBC.J. Carr+0.53 EPA a dropback · 131 dropbacks · 12th of 130 QBs
  • RBAneyas Williams+0.23 EPA a carry · 58 carries · 52nd of 194 RBs
  • WRJordan Faison+0.94 EPA a target · 32 targets · 35th of 390 WRs
  • WRMicah Gilbert+1.17 EPA a target · 25 targets · 8th of 390 WRs

BYU

  • QBBear Bachmeier+0.33 EPA a dropback · 116 dropbacks · 47th of 130 QBs
  • RBLJ Martin+0.44 EPA a carry · 44 carries · 5th of 194 RBs
  • WRKyler Kasper+0.43 EPA a target · 28 targets · 220th of 390 WRs
  • WRLegend Glasker+1.02 EPA a target · 21 targets · 21st of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Notre Dame

  • W58-7vs Stanford+10
  • W37-26at North Carolina−10
  • W49-10at Purdue+8
  • W27-10vs Michigan St−14

BYU

  • W24-10vs Iowa State+4
  • W17-10at TCU+2
  • W41-23at Colorado St−3
  • W28-17vs Arizona−1

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).