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Arizona St at Texas Tech

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

Arizona St3-2
at
#10 Texas Tech5-0

Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET · Fox

Galaxy Stadium · Lubbock, TX

⛅ 55° Partly sunny

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Texas Tech by 16.9, the book by 15.5: siding with Texas Tech -15.5.

On the total, GordStats says 54 to the book's 50.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

ASU 14%win chanceTTU 86%
GordStatsTTU by 16.986% to win · ASU 18–TTU 35
DraftKingsTTU -15.5O/U 50.5
ESPN FPITTU 94%win chance
Watch score71

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Texas Tech's defense (19th) meets Arizona St's offense (127th).
  • Texas Tech's offense (33rd) meets Arizona St's defense (89th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Arizona St Offense vs Texas Tech Defense

ASU offTTU def
EPA per play
127th+0.0019th+0.02
Run EPA
108th+0.0331st+0.03
Pass EPA
124th+0.0917th+0.10
Success rate
71st41%13th37%
Explosiveness
119th0.9138th0.92
Line yards
66th2.9736th2.87
Havoc
92nd16%56th17%
Points per trip
90th3.599th2.35
Third downs
129th30%86th39%

Arizona St: 67 plays a game (68th most) · passes on 51% of plays

Texas Tech Offense vs Arizona St Defense

TTU offASU def
EPA per play
33rd+0.1689th+0.13
Run EPA
27th+0.1180th+0.08
Pass EPA
33rd+0.2580th+0.20
Success rate
22nd46%62nd41%
Explosiveness
65th0.9399th0.94
Line yards
40th3.0362nd2.94
Havoc
126th19%91st15%
Points per trip
45th4.2057th3.20
Third downs
48th44%76th38%

Texas Tech: 68 plays a game (60th most) · passes on 45% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Arizona St

  • QBCutter Boley+0.33 EPA a dropback · 143 dropbacks · 49th of 130 QBs
  • RBKyson Brown+0.02 EPA a carry · 53 carries · 145th of 194 RBs
  • WROmarion Miller+0.28 EPA a target · 46 targets · 305th of 390 WRs
  • WRReed Harris+0.94 EPA a target · 45 targets · 34th of 390 WRs

Texas Tech

  • QBWill Hammond+0.27 EPA a dropback · 141 dropbacks · 65th of 130 QBs
  • RBJ'Koby Williams+0.11 EPA a carry · 58 carries · 109th of 194 RBs
  • WRKenny Johnson+0.60 EPA a target · 34 targets · 143rd of 390 WRs
  • WRCoy Eakin+0.68 EPA a target · 20 targets · 106th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Arizona St

  • W30-12vs Hawai'i−4
  • L19-55vs Baylor−41
  • W24-17vs Kansas+2
  • L20-48at Texas A&M−12

Texas Tech

  • W29-7at Colorado+6
  • W49-14vs Sam Houston+3
  • W28-26vs Houston−11
  • W35-24at Oregon St−14

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).