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Oklahoma St at Houston

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

#18 Oklahoma St4-1
at
#20 Houston5-1

Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET · Fox

TDECU Stadium · Houston, TX

☀️ 71° Mostly sunny · gusts 17 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Houston by 13.4, the book by 4.5: a lean to Houston -4.5.

On the total, GordStats says 54 to the book's 62.5: a lean to the Under.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

OKST 20%win chanceHOU 80%
GordStatsHOU by 13.480% to win · OKST 20–HOU 34
DraftKingsHOU -4.5O/U 62.5
ESPN FPIHOU 75%win chance
Watch score84Top 25 matchup

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Houston's big-play defense (35th) meets Oklahoma St's big-play offense (138th).
  • Oklahoma St's big-play defense (51st) meets Houston's big-play offense (135th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Oklahoma St Offense vs Houston Defense

OKST offHOU def
EPA per play
71st+0.1065th+0.10
Run EPA
87th+0.0540th+0.04
Pass EPA
63rd+0.1979th+0.20
Success rate
25th46%40th40%
Explosiveness
138th0.8835th0.91
Line yards
41st3.0351st2.91
Havoc
10th10%19th20%
Points per trip
63rd3.93137th4.83
Third downs
111th34%60th36%

Oklahoma St: 77 plays a game (7th most) · passes on 48% of plays

Houston Offense vs Oklahoma St Defense

HOU offOKST def
EPA per play
8th+0.2558th+0.08
Run EPA
24th+0.1250th+0.05
Pass EPA
9th+0.3563rd+0.16
Success rate
1st51%81st42%
Explosiveness
135th0.8851st0.92
Line yards
3rd3.2377th2.97
Havoc
8th10%82nd15%
Points per trip
21st4.6076th3.45
Third downs
1st63%26th31%

Houston: 72 plays a game (23rd most) · passes on 43% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Oklahoma St

  • QBDrew Mestemaker+0.39 EPA a dropback · 166 dropbacks · 38th of 130 QBs
  • RBCaleb Hawkins+0.02 EPA a carry · 105 carries · 144th of 194 RBs
  • WRJustin Bowick+0.94 EPA a target · 39 targets · 33rd of 390 WRs
  • WRWyatt Young+1.10 EPA a target · 31 targets · 14th of 390 WRs

Houston

  • QBConner Weigman+0.55 EPA a dropback · 164 dropbacks · 10th of 130 QBs
  • RBMakhi Hughes+0.13 EPA a carry · 80 carries · 98th of 194 RBs
  • TEPatrick Overmyer+0.62 EPA a target · 47 targets · 38th of 114 TEs
  • WRAmare Thomas+0.57 EPA a target · 46 targets · 155th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Oklahoma St

  • W42-28vs UCF+16
  • W41-24at West Virginia+24
  • W59-0vs Murray St+29
  • W39-31vs Oregon+40

Houston

  • W35-16at Kansas St+18
  • W27-17vs UCF+2
  • W42-28at GA Southern0
  • L26-28at Texas Tech+11

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).