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TCU at Baylor

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 11:33 AM ET

TCU2-3
at
Baylor4-1

Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET · FS1

McLane Stadium · Waco, TX

☀️ 68° Mostly sunny · wind 11 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Baylor by 4.4, the book by 5.5: siding with TCU +5.5.

On the total, GordStats says 50 to the book's 48.5: siding with the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

TCU 39%win chanceBAY 61%
GordStatsBAY by 4.461% to win · TCU 23–BAY 27
DraftKingsBAY -5.5O/U 48.5
ESPN FPIBAY 69%win chance
Watch score72Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Baylor's run defense (11th) meets TCU's run game (133rd).
  • TCU's run defense (13th) meets Baylor's run game (85th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

TCU Offense vs Baylor Defense

TCU offBAY def
EPA per play
104th+0.0533rd+0.05
Run EPA
133rd-0.0211th-0.01
Pass EPA
57th+0.2058th+0.16
Success rate
112th38%49th40%
Explosiveness
117th0.9128th0.91
Line yards
132nd2.7053rd2.91
Havoc
68th15%15th20%
Points per trip
105th3.324th2.13
Third downs
70th41%53rd35%

TCU: 67 plays a game (70th most) · passes on 51% of plays

Baylor Offense vs TCU Defense

BAY offTCU def
EPA per play
48th+0.1411th+0.00
Run EPA
85th+0.0513th+0.00
Pass EPA
32nd+0.2530th+0.12
Success rate
87th40%29th39%
Explosiveness
42nd0.9411th0.90
Line yards
107th2.8363rd2.95
Havoc
79th15%41st18%
Points per trip
78th3.7675th3.42
Third downs
55th43%21st31%

Baylor: 82 plays a game (1st most) · passes on 53% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

TCU

  • QBJaden Craig+0.27 EPA a dropback · 161 dropbacks · 66th of 130 QBs
  • RBJeremy Payne-0.03 EPA a carry · 84 carries · 167th of 194 RBs
  • WREd Small+0.74 EPA a target · 36 targets · 86th of 390 WRs
  • TEKari Ashley+0.98 EPA a target · 31 targets · 15th of 114 TEs

Baylor

  • QBD.J. Lagway+0.31 EPA a dropback · 132 dropbacks · 54th of 130 QBs
  • RBDawson Pendergrass+0.08 EPA a carry · 66 carries · 123rd of 194 RBs
  • WRGavin Freeman+0.65 EPA a target · 52 targets · 121st of 390 WRs
  • WRLouis Brown+0.73 EPA a target · 27 targets · 90th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

TCU

  • L10-17vs BYU−2
  • L13-21at UCF−6
  • W31-7vs Arkansas St+4
  • W63-7vs Grambling+14

Baylor

  • W55-19at Arizona St+41
  • W23-13vs Colorado−3
  • W36-19vs Louisiana Tech+9
  • W44-3vs Prairie View+1

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).