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Florida St at Miami

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

Florida St3-3
at
#3 Miami5-0

Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET · ESPN, Disney+

Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL

⛈️ 78° Thunderstorms · rain 71%

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Miami by 21.1, the book by 20.5: siding with Miami -20.5.

On the total, GordStats says 54 to the book's 56.5: siding with the Under.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

FSU 9%win chanceMIA 91%
GordStatsMIA by 21.191% to win · FSU 17–MIA 38
DraftKingsMIA -20.5O/U 56.5
ESPN FPIMIA 94%win chance
Watch score81

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Miami's offense (7th) meets Florida St's defense (109th).
  • Miami's pass defense (18th) meets Florida St's passing game (75th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Florida St Offense vs Miami Defense

FSU offMIA def
EPA per play
32nd+0.1622nd+0.02
Run EPA
3rd+0.1621st+0.01
Pass EPA
75th+0.1718th+0.10
Success rate
38th45%28th38%
Explosiveness
26th0.9568th0.93
Line yards
5th3.2218th2.77
Havoc
76th15%70th16%
Points per trip
24th4.595th2.15
Third downs
61st42%40th33%

Florida St: 65 plays a game (93rd most) · passes on 44% of plays

Miami Offense vs Florida St Defense

MIA offFSU def
EPA per play
7th+0.25109th+0.16
Run EPA
61st+0.07100th+0.10
Pass EPA
2nd+0.4294th+0.24
Success rate
8th49%74th42%
Explosiveness
87th0.92117th0.96
Line yards
16th3.14102nd3.04
Havoc
3rd8%69th16%
Points per trip
6th4.9855th3.18
Third downs
15th51%101st41%

Miami: 69 plays a game (53rd most) · passes on 50% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Florida St

  • QBAshton Daniels+0.29 EPA a dropback · 160 dropbacks · 59th of 130 QBs
  • RBOusmane Kromah+0.18 EPA a carry · 94 carries · 71st of 194 RBs
  • WRDuce Robinson+0.36 EPA a target · 33 targets · 260th of 390 WRs
  • WRMicahi Danzy+0.74 EPA a target · 23 targets · 87th of 390 WRs

Miami

  • QBDarian Mensah+0.70 EPA a dropback · 123 dropbacks · 1st of 130 QBs
  • RBMark Fletcher Jr.+0.24 EPA a carry · 52 carries · 48th of 194 RBs
  • WRMalachi Toney+0.81 EPA a target · 42 targets · 66th of 390 WRs
  • WRCooper Barkate+0.97 EPA a target · 21 targets · 24th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Florida St

  • L20-44at Louisville−21
  • W38-7vs Virginia+32
  • W34-7vs C Arkansas−18
  • L36-50at Alabama+6

Miami

  • W41-13at Clemson+12
  • W52-3vs C Michigan+6
  • W33-20at Wake Forest−7
  • W77-7vs Florida A&M+10

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).