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Pitt at Boston College

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

Pitt5-1
at
Boston College2-3

Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET · ESPN2

Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)

⛅ 49° Partly sunny · rain 7% · wind 17 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Pitt by 14.1, the book by 6.5: a lean to Pitt -6.5.

On the total, GordStats says 49 to the book's 42.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

PITT 81%win chanceBC 19%
GordStatsPITT by 14.181% to win · PITT 31–BC 17
DraftKingsPITT -6.5O/U 42.5
ESPN FPIPITT 84%win chance
Watch score59

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Pitt's third-down defense (12th) meets Boston College's third-down offense (118th).
  • Boston College's defense (34th) meets Pitt's offense (88th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Pitt Offense vs Boston College Defense

PITT offBC def
EPA per play
88th+0.0734th+0.05
Run EPA
91st+0.0467th+0.07
Pass EPA
86th+0.1638th+0.13
Success rate
95th40%32nd39%
Explosiveness
80th0.93120th0.96
Line yards
57th2.9866th2.95
Havoc
23rd11%32nd18%
Points per trip
60th3.9874th3.42
Third downs
36th46%90th40%

Pitt: 73 plays a game (17th most) · passes on 52% of plays

Boston College Offense vs Pitt Defense

BC offPITT def
EPA per play
117th+0.0325th+0.03
Run EPA
71st+0.069th-0.01
Pass EPA
115th+0.1168th+0.18
Success rate
118th38%18th37%
Explosiveness
24th0.9584th0.94
Line yards
90th2.902nd2.45
Havoc
134th20%33rd18%
Points per trip
119th2.8912th2.57
Third downs
118th32%12th29%

Boston College: 65 plays a game (88th most) · passes on 45% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Pitt

  • QBMason Heintschel+0.40 EPA a dropback · 136 dropbacks · 31st of 130 QBs
  • RBDamon Ferguson Jr.+0.05 EPA a carry · 58 carries · 134th of 194 RBs
  • WRCataurus Hicks+0.32 EPA a target · 37 targets · 287th of 390 WRs
  • WRCensere Lee+0.60 EPA a target · 27 targets · 146th of 390 WRs

Boston College

  • QBMason McKenzie+0.11 EPA a dropback · 144 dropbacks · 109th of 130 QBs
  • RBEvan Dickens-0.03 EPA a carry · 49 carries · 165th of 194 RBs
  • WRJavarius Green+0.31 EPA a target · 30 targets · 290th of 390 WRs
  • WRDawson Pough+0.90 EPA a target · 13 targets

Recent Form

Pitt

  • L17-21vs North Carolina−17
  • W35-33at Virginia Tech−2
  • W59-0vs Bucknell+11
  • W27-13vs Syracuse−4

Boston College

  • L16-25at SMU+9
  • L14-21vs Virginia Tech+4
  • W22-16vs Maine−28
  • W28-21vs Rutgers0

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).