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Virginia at SMU

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 11:33 AM ET

Virginia4-2
at
#24 SMU4-1

Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET · CW

Gerald J. Ford Stadium · Dallas, TX

☀️ 57° Mostly sunny · gusts 14 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes SMU by 5.1, the book by 9.5: a lean to Virginia +9.5.

On the total, GordStats says 53 to the book's 51.5: siding with the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

UVA 37%win chanceSMU 63%
GordStatsSMU by 5.163% to win · UVA 24–SMU 29
DraftKingsSMU -9.5O/U 51.5
ESPN FPISMU 70%win chance
Watch score68Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • SMU's third-down defense (4th) meets Virginia's third-down offense (113th).
  • Virginia's big-play defense (36th) meets SMU's big-play offense (122nd).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Virginia Offense vs SMU Defense

UVA offSMU def
EPA per play
86th+0.0883rd+0.12
Run EPA
80th+0.0583rd+0.08
Pass EPA
89th+0.1676th+0.19
Success rate
104th39%43rd40%
Explosiveness
89th0.92124th0.97
Line yards
32nd3.0721st2.79
Havoc
43rd13%5th22%
Points per trip
50th4.1582nd3.56
Third downs
113th33%4th26%

Virginia: 70 plays a game (37th most) · passes on 43% of plays

SMU Offense vs Virginia Defense

SMU offUVA def
EPA per play
61st+0.1169th+0.11
Run EPA
97th+0.0497th+0.09
Pass EPA
29th+0.2574th+0.18
Success rate
33rd45%47th40%
Explosiveness
122nd0.9036th0.92
Line yards
110th2.82104th3.05
Havoc
55th14%42nd17%
Points per trip
74th3.8289th3.67
Third downs
13th52%52nd35%

SMU: 69 plays a game (48th most) · passes on 50% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Virginia

  • QBBeau Pribula+0.33 EPA a dropback · 138 dropbacks · 48th of 130 QBs
  • RBJekail Middlebrook+0.25 EPA a carry · 65 carries · 44th of 194 RBs
  • WRKameron Courtney+0.59 EPA a target · 23 targets · 150th of 390 WRs
  • WRDashawn Martin+0.61 EPA a target · 19 targets · 139th of 390 WRs

SMU

  • QBKevin Jennings+0.51 EPA a dropback · 154 dropbacks · 15th of 130 QBs
  • RBKendrick Raphael+0.26 EPA a carry · 73 carries · 43rd of 194 RBs
  • WRYamir Knight+0.93 EPA a target · 26 targets · 38th of 390 WRs
  • TERandy Pittman+0.64 EPA a target · 20 targets · 35th of 114 TEs

Recent Form

Virginia

  • W28-25vs Syracuse−7
  • L7-38at Florida St−32
  • W42-3vs Delaware+20
  • L27-38vs West Virginia−24

SMU

  • W25-16vs Boston College−9
  • W34-24vs Missouri St−18
  • L31-41at Louisville−8
  • W56-10vs UC Davis−4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).