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Wake Forest at California

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

#21 Wake Forest5-1
at
California3-3

Sat, Oct 17 · 10:30 PM ET · ESPN2

California Memorial Stadium · Berkeley, CA

☀️ 70° Clear

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Wake Forest by 13.2, the book by 10: a lean to Wake Forest -10.

On the total, GordStats says 52 to the book's 53.5: siding with the Under.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

WAKE 80%win chanceCAL 20%
GordStatsWAKE by 13.280% to win · WAKE 33–CAL 20
DraftKingsWAKE -10O/U 53.5
ESPN FPIWAKE 80%win chance
Watch score64

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Wake Forest's defensive front (25th) meets California's offensive line (133rd).
  • Wake Forest's run game (31st) meets California's run defense (127th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Wake Forest Offense vs California Defense

WAKE offCAL def
EPA per play
19th+0.2072nd+0.11
Run EPA
31st+0.11127th+0.14
Pass EPA
21st+0.3034th+0.13
Success rate
32nd45%31st39%
Explosiveness
59th0.94131st0.97
Line yards
83rd2.92109th3.06
Havoc
18th11%97th14%
Points per trip
30th4.4435th2.97
Third downs
29th47%94th40%

Wake Forest: 67 plays a game (74th most) · passes on 52% of plays

California Offense vs Wake Forest Defense

CAL offWAKE def
EPA per play
122nd+0.0139th+0.06
Run EPA
122nd+0.0033rd+0.03
Pass EPA
105th+0.1340th+0.14
Success rate
117th38%78th42%
Explosiveness
74th0.9321st0.91
Line yards
133rd2.6525th2.81
Havoc
115th17%95th14%
Points per trip
122nd2.8054th3.18
Third downs
88th38%113th44%

California: 72 plays a game (26th most) · passes on 61% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Wake Forest

  • QBGiovanni Lopez+0.46 EPA a dropback · 189 dropbacks · 21st of 130 QBs
  • RBTy Clark III-0.08 EPA a carry · 57 carries · 175th of 194 RBs
  • WRCarlos Hernandez+0.91 EPA a target · 63 targets · 42nd of 390 WRs
  • WRJack Foley+0.72 EPA a target · 28 targets · 93rd of 390 WRs

California

  • QBJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele+0.14 EPA a dropback · 162 dropbacks · 101st of 130 QBs
  • RBAdam Mohammed+0.13 EPA a carry · 72 carries · 102nd of 194 RBs
  • WRChase Hendricks+0.35 EPA a target · 48 targets · 270th of 390 WRs
  • WRIan Strong+0.30 EPA a target · 45 targets · 299th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Wake Forest

  • W38-14at NC State+21
  • W57-3vs Stanford+38
  • W30-27at Louisville+16
  • L20-33vs Miami+7

California

  • W25-20vs Virginia Tech+12
  • L31-39at UNLV−2
  • L10-24vs Clemson−11
  • W49-7vs Wagner+7

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).