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Ohio State at Indiana

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

#4 Ohio State5-1
at
#5 Indiana6-0

Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET · Fox

Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)

☀️ 49° Sunny · gusts 17 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Indiana by 1.7, the book has Ohio State by 3: a lean to Indiana +3.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

OSU 46%win chanceIU 54%
GordStatsIU by 1.754% to win · OSU 24–IU 26
DraftKingsOSU -3O/U 50.5
ESPN FPIOSU 51%win chance
Watch score100Top 25 matchup · Toss-up · Playoff stakes

Unit vs Unit How this works

No unit has a big edge over the one it faces.

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Ohio State Offense vs Indiana Defense

OSU offIU def
EPA per play
14th+0.2115th+0.01
Run EPA
44th+0.0916th+0.00
Pass EPA
7th+0.3632nd+0.12
Success rate
5th49%4th34%
Explosiveness
82nd0.93113th0.95
Line yards
27th3.088th2.67
Havoc
32nd12%25th19%
Points per trip
4th5.1346th3.05
Third downs
40th45%39th33%

Ohio State: 69 plays a game (47th most) · passes on 47% of plays

Indiana Offense vs Ohio State Defense

IU offOSU def
EPA per play
6th+0.258th-0.01
Run EPA
26th+0.1120th+0.01
Pass EPA
3rd+0.384th+0.05
Success rate
34th45%16th37%
Explosiveness
30th0.9563rd0.93
Line yards
28th3.0822nd2.81
Havoc
19th11%27th19%
Points per trip
16th4.8444th3.04
Third downs
39th45%64th36%

Indiana: 60 plays a game (125th most) · passes on 43% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Ohio State

  • QBJulian Sayin+0.63 EPA a dropback · 167 dropbacks · 5th of 130 QBs
  • RBBo Jackson+0.12 EPA a carry · 88 carries · 103rd of 194 RBs
  • WRJeremiah Smith+1.07 EPA a target · 66 targets · 16th of 390 WRs
  • WRDevin Mccuin+0.68 EPA a target · 20 targets · 109th of 390 WRs

Indiana

  • QBJosh Hoover+0.70 EPA a dropback · 129 dropbacks · 2nd of 130 QBs
  • RBLee Beebe+0.14 EPA a carry · 85 carries · 94th of 194 RBs
  • WRCharlie Becker+1.05 EPA a target · 40 targets · 18th of 390 WRs
  • WRNick Marsh+0.69 EPA a target · 39 targets · 103rd of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Ohio State

  • W45-16vs Maryland−3
  • W31-14at Iowa+11
  • W42-19vs Illinois−3
  • W59-3vs Kent State0

Indiana

  • W20-17at Nebraska−8
  • W47-15at Rutgers+6
  • W29-23vs Northwestern−24
  • W38-0vs Western KY−7

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).