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Rutgers at Maryland

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

Rutgers1-4
at
Maryland2-4

Sat, Oct 17 · 12:30 PM ET · BTN

SECU Stadium · College Park, MD

⛅ 54° Partly sunny · rain 34% · wind 14 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Maryland by 6.2, the book by 5.5: siding with Maryland -5.5.

On the total, GordStats says 60 to the book's 56.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

RUTG 35%win chanceMD 65%
GordStatsMD by 6.265% to win · RUTG 27–MD 33
DraftKingsMD -5.5O/U 56.5
ESPN FPIMD 61%win chance
Watch score44Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Maryland's defensive front (42nd) meets Rutgers' offensive line (109th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Rutgers Offense vs Maryland Defense

RUTG offMD def
EPA per play
103rd+0.0560th+0.08
Run EPA
126th-0.0172nd+0.07
Pass EPA
51st+0.2162nd+0.16
Success rate
68th41%50th41%
Explosiveness
116th0.9187th0.94
Line yards
109th2.8342nd2.88
Havoc
80th15%76th16%
Points per trip
55th4.07136th4.79
Third downs
96th37%79th38%

Rutgers: 66 plays a game (79th most) · passes on 48% of plays

Maryland Offense vs Rutgers Defense

MD offRUTG def
EPA per play
116th+0.03125th+0.20
Run EPA
86th+0.05122nd+0.13
Pass EPA
132nd+0.05117th+0.28
Success rate
114th38%124th47%
Explosiveness
52nd0.9466th0.93
Line yards
120th2.78130th3.18
Havoc
50th14%126th12%
Points per trip
114th3.05116th4.12
Third downs
110th34%83rd39%

Maryland: 70 plays a game (43rd most) · passes on 60% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Rutgers

  • QBDylan Lonergan+0.47 EPA a dropback · 88 dropbacks · 19th of 130 QBs
  • RBAntwan Raymond+0.20 EPA a carry · 84 carries · 63rd of 194 RBs
  • WRKJ Duff+1.14 EPA a target · 46 targets · 11th of 390 WRs
  • WRJourdin Houston+0.59 EPA a target · 16 targets · 151st of 390 WRs

Maryland

  • QBMalik Washington+0.05 EPA a dropback · 194 dropbacks · 122nd of 130 QBs
  • RBIverson Howard+0.13 EPA a carry · 48 carries · 101st of 194 RBs
  • WRChris Durr Jr.+0.63 EPA a target · 58 targets · 130th of 390 WRs
  • WRKaleb Webb+0.31 EPA a target · 31 targets · 288th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Rutgers

  • L15-47vs Indiana−6
  • W58-7vs Howard+20
  • L35-42vs USC+11
  • L21-28at Boston College0

Maryland

  • L16-45at Ohio State+3
  • L23-48at Nebraska−10
  • L3-54vs UCLA−56
  • L26-35vs Virginia Tech−12

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).