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Nebraska at Oregon

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 11:33 AM ET

Nebraska5-1
at
Oregon3-2

Sat, Oct 17 · 11:00 PM ET · Fox

Autzen Stadium · Eugene, OR

⛅ 58° Partly cloudy · gusts 13 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Oregon by 9.8, the book by 7: siding with Oregon -7.

On the total, GordStats says 55 to the book's 51.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

NEB 27%win chanceORE 73%
GordStatsORE by 9.873% to win · NEB 23–ORE 33
DraftKingsORE -7O/U 51.5
ESPN FPIORE 66%win chance
Watch score92

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Nebraska's third-down defense (1st) meets Oregon's third-down offense (62nd).
  • Nebraska's big-play offense (2nd) meets Oregon's big-play defense (56th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Nebraska Offense vs Oregon Defense

NEB offORE def
EPA per play
11th+0.2113th+0.01
Run EPA
1st+0.1729th+0.03
Pass EPA
55th+0.2011th+0.08
Success rate
17th47%10th36%
Explosiveness
2nd0.9956th0.93
Line yards
18th3.1317th2.77
Havoc
39th13%62nd16%
Points per trip
14th4.8542nd3.03
Third downs
9th52%2nd22%

Nebraska: 74 plays a game (15th most) · passes on 48% of plays

Oregon Offense vs Nebraska Defense

ORE offNEB def
EPA per play
87th+0.0738th+0.06
Run EPA
129th-0.0170th+0.07
Pass EPA
49th+0.2115th+0.10
Success rate
97th40%21st37%
Explosiveness
111th0.91102nd0.95
Line yards
108th2.8371st2.96
Havoc
67th14%29th18%
Points per trip
26th4.546th2.23
Third downs
62nd42%1st20%

Oregon: 70 plays a game (39th most) · passes on 55% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Nebraska

  • QBAnthony Colandrea+0.31 EPA a dropback · 187 dropbacks · 55th of 130 QBs
  • RBJamal Rule+0.49 EPA a carry · 56 carries · 2nd of 194 RBs
  • WRJacory Barney Jr.+0.72 EPA a target · 36 targets · 95th of 390 WRs

Oregon

  • QBDante Moore+0.43 EPA a dropback · 103 dropbacks · 26th of 130 QBs
  • RBJordon Davison+0.13 EPA a carry · 59 carries · 97th of 194 RBs
  • WREvan Stewart+0.51 EPA a target · 35 targets · 189th of 390 WRs
  • WRDakorien Moore+0.34 EPA a target · 31 targets · 276th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Nebraska

  • L17-20vs Indiana+8
  • W48-23vs Maryland+10
  • W31-13at Michigan St+17
  • W34-7vs North Dakota−20

Oregon

  • L15-17vs UCLA−12
  • W41-27at USC+11
  • W84-0vs Portland St+31
  • L31-39at Oklahoma St−40

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).