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Washington at Purdue

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

Washington3-3
at
Purdue3-3

Fri, Oct 16 · 8:00 PM ET · Fox

Ross-Ade Stadium · West Lafayette, IN

🌧️ 54° Showers · rain 52% · wind 18 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats calls it a coin flip, the book has Purdue by 3: siding with Washington +3.

On the total, GordStats says 55 to the book's 50.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

WASH 49%win chancePUR 51%
GordStatsCoin flip51% to win · WASH 27–PUR 27
DraftKingsPUR -3O/U 50.5
ESPN FPIPUR 60%win chance
Watch score59Toss-up

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Purdue's passing game (22nd) meets Washington's pass defense (84th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Washington Offense vs Purdue Defense

WASH offPUR def
EPA per play
84th+0.08119th+0.18
Run EPA
112th+0.02117th+0.12
Pass EPA
84th+0.16109th+0.27
Success rate
88th40%96th44%
Explosiveness
98th0.9293rd0.94
Line yards
93rd2.89119th3.12
Havoc
56th14%104th14%
Points per trip
57th4.05126th4.25
Third downs
125th31%131st48%

Washington: 66 plays a game (82nd most) · passes on 58% of plays

Purdue Offense vs Washington Defense

PUR offWASH def
EPA per play
18th+0.2079th+0.12
Run EPA
51st+0.0965th+0.06
Pass EPA
22nd+0.2984th+0.22
Success rate
27th46%91st44%
Explosiveness
39th0.9447th0.92
Line yards
87th2.9168th2.95
Havoc
31st12%48th17%
Points per trip
77th3.7752nd3.17
Third downs
38th45%20th31%

Purdue: 70 plays a game (41st most) · passes on 48% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Washington

  • QBDemond Williams Jr.+0.24 EPA a dropback · 186 dropbacks · 75th of 130 QBs
  • RBBrian Bonner Jr.-0.03 EPA a carry · 48 carries · 166th of 194 RBs
  • WRDezmen Roebuck+0.24 EPA a target · 57 targets · 317th of 390 WRs
  • WRChris Lawson+0.95 EPA a target · 33 targets · 30th of 390 WRs

Purdue

  • QBRyan Browne+0.46 EPA a dropback · 176 dropbacks · 22nd of 130 QBs
  • RBFame Ijeboi+0.23 EPA a carry · 109 carries · 54th of 194 RBs
  • WRXavier Townsend+0.54 EPA a target · 38 targets · 170th of 390 WRs
  • WRAsaad Waseem+0.76 EPA a target · 37 targets · 78th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Washington

  • L24-41vs Iowa−12
  • L21-25at USC+6
  • L24-27vs Minnesota−11
  • W48-16vs E Washington−14

Purdue

  • W41-13vs Minnesota+32
  • W24-17at Illinois+24
  • L10-49vs Notre Dame−8
  • L38-52at UCLA+2

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).