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Wisconsin at UCLA

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 11:33 AM ET

Wisconsin4-1
at
#12 UCLA5-0

Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET · NBC

Rose Bowl · Pasadena, CA

☀️ 90° Mostly sunny · wind 11 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes UCLA by 10.5, the book by 2.5: a lean to UCLA -2.5.

On the total, GordStats says 46 to the book's 42.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

WIS 25%win chanceUCLA 75%
GordStatsUCLA by 10.575% to win · WIS 18–UCLA 28
DraftKingsUCLA -2.5O/U 42.5
ESPN FPIUCLA 58%win chance
Watch score81Toss-up · Playoff stakes

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Wisconsin's pass defense (1st) meets UCLA's passing game (82nd).
  • UCLA's defensive front (9th) meets Wisconsin's offensive line (60th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Wisconsin Offense vs UCLA Defense

WIS offUCLA def
EPA per play
47th+0.141st-0.06
Run EPA
37th+0.102nd-0.05
Pass EPA
48th+0.213rd+0.04
Success rate
61st42%9th36%
Explosiveness
10th0.978th0.89
Line yards
60th2.989th2.67
Havoc
74th15%12th21%
Points per trip
98th3.4614th2.67
Third downs
47th44%5th26%

Wisconsin: 62 plays a game (118th most) · passes on 47% of plays

UCLA Offense vs Wisconsin Defense

UCLA offWIS def
EPA per play
31st+0.174th-0.03
Run EPA
5th+0.1554th+0.05
Pass EPA
82nd+0.161st+0.00
Success rate
26th46%6th35%
Explosiveness
25th0.9553rd0.93
Line yards
1st3.3043rd2.89
Havoc
64th14%73rd16%
Points per trip
64th3.9339th3.00
Third downs
51st44%19th31%

UCLA: 67 plays a game (71st most) · passes on 40% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Wisconsin

  • QBColton Joseph+0.27 EPA a dropback · 129 dropbacks · 68th of 130 QBs
  • RBDarrion Dupree+0.00 EPA a carry · 45 carries · 153rd of 194 RBs
  • WRTyrell Henry+0.47 EPA a target · 37 targets · 201st of 390 WRs
  • WREugene Hilton Jr.+0.34 EPA a target · 20 targets · 279th of 390 WRs

UCLA

  • QBNico Iamaleava+0.07 EPA a dropback · 115 dropbacks · 117th of 130 QBs
  • RBWayne Knight+0.55 EPA a carry · 68 carries · 1st of 194 RBs
  • WRSemaj Morgan+0.49 EPA a target · 27 targets · 192nd of 390 WRs
  • WRBrian Rowe Jr.+0.12 EPA a target · 24 targets · 348th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Wisconsin

  • W31-3vs Michigan St+21
  • W24-20at Penn State+23
  • W54-10vs E Michigan+23
  • W36-9vs W Illinois−11

UCLA

  • W17-15at Oregon+12
  • W54-3at Maryland+56
  • W52-38vs Purdue−2
  • W28-10vs San Diego St+11

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).