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Fresno St at San Diego St

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

Fresno St4-2
at
San Diego St2-4

Sat, Oct 17 · 10:30 PM ET · CBSSN

Snapdragon Stadium · San Diego, CA

☀️ 79° Mostly clear

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Fresno St by 6.1, the book by 7.5: siding with San Diego St +7.5.

On the total, GordStats says 47 to the book's 45.5: siding with the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

FRES 65%win chanceSDSU 35%
GordStatsFRES by 6.165% to win · FRES 27–SDSU 21
DraftKingsFRES -7.5O/U 45.5
ESPN FPIFRES 76%win chance
Watch score42Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Fresno St's defense (37th) meets San Diego St's offense (134th).
  • Fresno St's passing game (20th) meets San Diego St's pass defense (105th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Fresno St Offense vs San Diego St Defense

FRES offSDSU def
EPA per play
49th+0.1377th+0.11
Run EPA
105th+0.0338th+0.04
Pass EPA
20th+0.30105th+0.26
Success rate
96th40%108th45%
Explosiveness
28th0.954th0.88
Line yards
126th2.75107th3.06
Havoc
34th12%128th12%
Points per trip
65th3.9293rd3.76
Third downs
93rd37%121st46%

Fresno St: 61 plays a game (124th most) · passes on 50% of plays

San Diego St Offense vs Fresno St Defense

SDSU offFRES def
EPA per play
134th-0.0537th+0.05
Run EPA
125th+0.0056th+0.06
Pass EPA
135th+0.0139th+0.13
Success rate
133rd34%86th43%
Explosiveness
95th0.9243rd0.92
Line yards
74th2.9589th3.01
Havoc
100th16%94th15%
Points per trip
108th3.2260th3.22
Third downs
133rd27%48th34%

San Diego St: 62 plays a game (123rd most) · passes on 44% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Fresno St

  • QBJayden Mandal+0.40 EPA a dropback · 161 dropbacks · 33rd of 130 QBs
  • RBBryson Donelson-0.21 EPA a carry · 45 carries · 192nd of 194 RBs
  • WRJosiah Freeman+0.66 EPA a target · 45 targets · 118th of 390 WRs
  • WREzekiel Avit+0.66 EPA a target · 28 targets · 117th of 390 WRs

San Diego St

  • QBJayden Denegal-0.08 EPA a dropback · 130 dropbacks · 130th of 130 QBs
  • RBJavion Kinnard+0.14 EPA a carry · 57 carries · 88th of 194 RBs
  • WRJacob Bostick-0.10 EPA a target · 15 targets · 382nd of 390 WRs
  • WRDonovan Brown+0.18 EPA a target · 12 targets

Recent Form

Fresno St

  • L31-38vs Boise St+1
  • W26-6at Washington St+26
  • W38-24vs Rice−4
  • W26-10at San José St+8

San Diego St

  • L14-66at Oregon St−42
  • W31-29vs Texas St+6
  • L16-41at Toledo−17
  • L13-26vs James Madison0

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).