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Memphis at Tulane

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

Memphis5-1
at
Tulane2-3

Fri, Oct 16 · 7:30 PM ET · ESPN

Yulman Stadium · New Orleans, LA

⛅ 82° Intermittent clouds · rain 3% · wind 14 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Memphis by 3.7, the book by 6.5: siding with Tulane +6.5.

On the total, GordStats says 51 to the book's 55.5: a lean to the Under.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

MEM 59%win chanceTULN 41%
GordStatsMEM by 3.759% to win · MEM 27–TULN 24
DraftKingsMEM -6.5O/U 55.5
ESPN FPIMEM 67%win chance
Watch score53Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Tulane's big-play offense (3rd) meets Memphis' big-play defense (122nd).
  • Memphis' third-down offense (22nd) meets Tulane's third-down defense (134th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Memphis Offense vs Tulane Defense

MEM offTULN def
EPA per play
16th+0.2185th+0.13
Run EPA
14th+0.1377th+0.07
Pass EPA
4th+0.3893rd+0.24
Success rate
28th45%57th41%
Explosiveness
70th0.9386th0.94
Line yards
15th3.15101st3.04
Havoc
16th11%135th11%
Points per trip
15th4.8556th3.19
Third downs
22nd49%134th49%

Memphis: 69 plays a game (55th most) · passes on 41% of plays

Tulane Offense vs Memphis Defense

TULN offMEM def
EPA per play
106th+0.0552nd+0.08
Run EPA
63rd+0.07106th+0.10
Pass EPA
117th+0.1112th+0.09
Success rate
135th33%66th41%
Explosiveness
3rd0.99122nd0.96
Line yards
129th2.7275th2.97
Havoc
132nd20%58th17%
Points per trip
128th2.6750th3.12
Third downs
80th39%37th32%

Tulane: 59 plays a game (130th most) · passes on 47% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Memphis

  • QBMarcus Stokes+0.62 EPA a dropback · 149 dropbacks · 6th of 130 QBs
  • RBJaylin Carter+0.36 EPA a carry · 88 carries · 11th of 194 RBs
  • WRJermane Hayes+0.48 EPA a target · 28 targets · 195th of 390 WRs
  • TEHunter Tipton+1.22 EPA a target · 24 targets · 7th of 114 TEs

Tulane

  • QBKadin Semonza+0.09 EPA a dropback · 128 dropbacks · 112th of 130 QBs
  • RBJohnnie Daniels+0.14 EPA a carry · 50 carries · 87th of 194 RBs
  • WRAnthony Brown+0.11 EPA a target · 32 targets · 353rd of 390 WRs
  • WRDestyn Hill+0.57 EPA a target · 24 targets · 158th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Memphis

  • W38-13vs UAB+4
  • W59-8at Charlotte+33
  • W45-21vs UT Martin−16
  • L20-38at Boise St−12

Tulane

  • L17-20at Army0
  • W24-21vs Southern Miss−17
  • L20-31at Kansas St+3
  • W28-24vs South Alabama−13

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).