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FAU at Army

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

FAU4-1
at
Army3-2

Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET · CBSSN

Michie Stadium · West Point, NY

⛅ 52° Partly sunny · rain 11% · wind 13 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Army by 9.2, the book by 2.5: a lean to Army -2.5.

On the total, GordStats says 56 to the book's 54.5: siding with the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

FAU 28%win chanceARMY 72%
GordStatsARMY by 9.272% to win · FAU 23–ARMY 32
DraftKingsARMY -2.5O/U 54.5
ESPN FPIARMY 69%win chance
Watch score40Toss-up

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Army's run game (10th) meets FAU's run defense (110th).
  • FAU's big-play offense (56th) meets Army's big-play defense (126th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

FAU Offense vs Army Defense

FAU offARMY def
EPA per play
55th+0.12123rd+0.19
Run EPA
74th+0.06123rd+0.13
Pass EPA
64th+0.19111th+0.27
Success rate
48th43%110th45%
Explosiveness
56th0.94126th0.97
Line yards
96th2.88123rd3.14
Havoc
73rd15%111th13%
Points per trip
35th4.4121st2.83
Third downs
20th50%85th39%

FAU: 77 plays a game (6th most) · passes on 54% of plays

Army Offense vs FAU Defense

ARMY offFAU def
EPA per play
38th+0.15115th+0.17
Run EPA
10th+0.14110th+0.11
Pass EPA
56th+0.2092nd+0.23
Success rate
21st47%58th41%
Explosiveness
104th0.92123rd0.96
Line yards
10th3.1747th2.90
Havoc
4th8%72nd16%
Points per trip
61st3.97115th4.12
Third downs
16th51%66th36%

Army: 68 plays a game (65th most) · passes on 18% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

FAU

  • QBCaden Veltkamp+0.39 EPA a dropback · 157 dropbacks · 39th of 130 QBs
  • RBEthan Ervin+0.19 EPA a carry · 59 carries · 67th of 194 RBs
  • WRKelby Valsin+0.75 EPA a target · 46 targets · 83rd of 390 WRs
  • WREaston Messer+0.51 EPA a target · 41 targets · 186th of 390 WRs

Army

  • QBCale Hellums+0.08 EPA a dropback · 56 dropbacks
  • RBGodspower Nwawuihe+0.04 EPA a carry · 34 carries
  • WRBradyn Anderson+0.26 EPA a target · 15 targets · 313th of 390 WRs
  • WRZach Mundell+0.76 EPA a target · 12 targets

Recent Form

FAU

  • W66-10vs Texas Southern+18
  • W45-17at UL Monroe+19
  • W16-10vs FIU+7
  • W38-30vs Navy+17

Army

  • W20-17vs Tulane0
  • L29-31at Louisiana Tech−2
  • W21-17at Temple−1
  • L24-28vs South Florida0

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).