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Navy at UTSA

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

Navy2-3
at
UTSA5-1

Sat, Oct 17 · 8:00 PM ET · ESPNU

Alamodome · San Antonio, TX

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats likes UTSA by 4.9, the book by 6.5: siding with Navy +6.5.

On the total, GordStats says 55 to the book's 55.5: siding with the Under.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

NAVY 38%win chanceUTSA 62%
GordStatsUTSA by 4.962% to win · NAVY 25–UTSA 30
DraftKingsUTSA -6.5O/U 55.5
ESPN FPIUTSA 74%win chance
Watch score44Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Navy's offensive line (4th) meets UTSA's defensive front (76th).
  • Navy's defensive front (10th) meets UTSA's offensive line (62nd).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Navy Offense vs UTSA Defense

NAVY offUTSA def
EPA per play
54th+0.1266th+0.10
Run EPA
34th+0.1174th+0.07
Pass EPA
72nd+0.1777th+0.19
Success rate
45th43%46th40%
Explosiveness
36th0.9544th0.92
Line yards
4th3.2376th2.97
Havoc
52nd14%121st13%
Points per trip
62nd3.9670th3.38
Third downs
53rd43%69th37%

Navy: 65 plays a game (87th most) · passes on 23% of plays

UTSA Offense vs Navy Defense

UTSA offNAVY def
EPA per play
35th+0.1663rd+0.09
Run EPA
9th+0.1424th+0.02
Pass EPA
93rd+0.1595th+0.24
Success rate
52nd43%19th37%
Explosiveness
68th0.9376th0.93
Line yards
62nd2.9710th2.68
Havoc
28th12%115th13%
Points per trip
103rd3.35101st3.87
Third downs
94th37%126th46%

UTSA: 67 plays a game (69th most) · passes on 48% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Navy

  • QBJackson Gutierrez+0.23 EPA a dropback · 50 dropbacks
  • RBVic Listorti+0.20 EPA a carry · 33 carries
  • WRCharles Robinson-0.14 EPA a target · 12 targets
  • WRMichael Barrow+0.40 EPA a target · 7 targets

UTSA

  • QBOwen McCown+0.16 EPA a dropback · 181 dropbacks · 98th of 130 QBs
  • RBWill Henderson III+0.23 EPA a carry · 76 carries · 53rd of 194 RBs
  • WRDavid Amador+0.28 EPA a target · 43 targets · 306th of 390 WRs
  • WRAJ Wilson+0.33 EPA a target · 30 targets · 284th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Navy

  • W34-26vs Tulsa+4
  • L9-14at Air Force−3
  • L20-24at UAB−12
  • L30-38at FAU−17

UTSA

  • W31-24vs South Florida+7
  • W16-14at Rice−8
  • W59-45vs Colorado St0
  • L6-30at Texas+3

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).