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Tulsa at Rice

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

Tulsa3-3
at
Rice1-5

Sat, Oct 17 · 4:30 PM ET · ESPN+

First Community Stadium · Houston, TX

☀️ 69° Mostly sunny · gusts 21 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Tulsa by 2.8, the book by 4.5: siding with Rice +4.5.

On the total, GordStats says 48 to the book's 46.5: siding with the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

TLSA 57%win chanceRICE 43%
GordStatsTLSA by 2.857% to win · TLSA 25–RICE 22
DraftKingsTLSA -4.5O/U 46.5
ESPN FPITLSA 68%win chance
Watch score31Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Tulsa's big-play offense (16th) meets Rice's big-play defense (135th).
  • Tulsa's run defense (37th) meets Rice's run game (117th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Tulsa Offense vs Rice Defense

TLSA offRICE def
EPA per play
73rd+0.0975th+0.11
Run EPA
30th+0.11107th+0.10
Pass EPA
114th+0.1146th+0.14
Success rate
124th37%54th41%
Explosiveness
16th0.96135th0.98
Line yards
51st3.0154th2.91
Havoc
70th15%80th15%
Points per trip
72nd3.8385th3.60
Third downs
132nd28%103rd42%

Tulsa: 68 plays a game (67th most) · passes on 51% of plays

Rice Offense vs Tulsa Defense

RICE offTLSA def
EPA per play
120th+0.0254th+0.08
Run EPA
117th+0.0237th+0.04
Pass EPA
127th+0.0899th+0.25
Success rate
116th38%53rd41%
Explosiveness
32nd0.9532nd0.91
Line yards
127th2.7448th2.90
Havoc
110th17%116th13%
Points per trip
101st3.4333rd2.95
Third downs
130th29%104th42%

Rice: 64 plays a game (106th most) · passes on 24% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Tulsa

  • QBBaylor Hayes+0.12 EPA a dropback · 136 dropbacks · 106th of 130 QBs
  • RBDamari Alston+0.11 EPA a carry · 77 carries · 107th of 194 RBs
  • WROran Singleton Jr.+0.30 EPA a target · 48 targets · 298th of 390 WRs
  • WRDavid Wells Jr.+0.50 EPA a target · 26 targets · 191st of 390 WRs

Rice

  • QBJacurri Brown-0.24 EPA a dropback · 76 dropbacks
  • RBTyvonn Byars+0.05 EPA a carry · 63 carries · 133rd of 194 RBs
  • WRJordan Clark+0.07 EPA a target · 23 targets · 363rd of 390 WRs
  • WRBraylen Walker-0.36 EPA a target · 12 targets

Recent Form

Tulsa

  • L26-34at Navy−4
  • L44-45vs North Texas+9
  • L6-34at Arkansas−18
  • W42-0vs East Texas A&M+16

Rice

  • L12-28at East Carolina−2
  • L14-16vs UTSA+8
  • L24-38at Fresno St+4
  • L21-28vs W Michigan+1

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).