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Kent State at South Florida

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 11:33 AM ET

Kent State2-4
at
South Florida4-2

Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET · ESPN+

Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL

⛅ 73° Intermittent clouds · rain 7% · wind 12 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes South Florida by 26.6, the book by 20.5: a lean to South Florida -20.5.

On the total, GordStats says 51 to the book's 45.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

KENT 5%win chanceUSF 95%
GordStatsUSF by 26.695% to win · KENT 12–USF 39
DraftKingsUSF -20.5O/U 45.5
ESPN FPIUSF 94%win chance
Watch score27

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • South Florida's run defense (27th) meets Kent State's run game (135th).
  • Kent State's big-play defense (59th) meets South Florida's big-play offense (102nd).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Kent State Offense vs South Florida Defense

KENT offUSF def
EPA per play
132nd-0.0342nd+0.06
Run EPA
135th-0.0227th+0.02
Pass EPA
120th+0.1052nd+0.15
Success rate
134th34%84th43%
Explosiveness
71st0.932nd0.87
Line yards
123rd2.7793rd3.02
Havoc
122nd18%84th15%
Points per trip
133rd2.2558th3.21
Third downs
95th37%72nd37%

Kent State: 64 plays a game (104th most) · passes on 47% of plays

South Florida Offense vs Kent State Defense

USF offKENT def
EPA per play
89th+0.07122nd+0.19
Run EPA
90th+0.0482nd+0.08
Pass EPA
91st+0.16129th+0.31
Success rate
49th43%121st46%
Explosiveness
102nd0.9259th0.93
Line yards
113th2.8180th2.98
Havoc
22nd11%100th14%
Points per trip
38th4.33130th4.58
Third downs
60th42%68th37%

South Florida: 60 plays a game (126th most) · passes on 45% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Kent State

  • QBDru Deshields+0.19 EPA a dropback · 146 dropbacks · 93rd of 130 QBs
  • RBMason Blakemore-0.06 EPA a carry · 50 carries · 174th of 194 RBs
  • WRWayne Harris+0.53 EPA a target · 35 targets · 177th of 390 WRs
  • WRDa'Realyst Clark+0.79 EPA a target · 31 targets · 74th of 390 WRs

South Florida

  • RBD.J. Crowther+0.21 EPA a carry · 94 carries · 60th of 194 RBs
  • WRBryson Rodgers+0.68 EPA a target · 38 targets · 108th of 390 WRs
  • WRJoshua Porter+0.27 EPA a target · 36 targets · 310th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Kent State

  • L7-38at W Michigan−13
  • L10-13vs Ohio+11
  • W26-13vs Ball State+12
  • L3-59at Ohio State0

South Florida

  • L24-31at UTSA−7
  • L13-17vs Temple−19
  • W14-6at Bowling Green−19
  • W59-17vs Delaware St−4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).