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Nevada at N Dakota St

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

Nevada2-3
at
N Dakota St5-1

Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET · CBSSN

Fargodome · Fargo, ND

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats likes N Dakota St by 14.1, the book by 14.5 — they agree, no lean.

On the total, GordStats says 44 to the book's 42.5: siding with the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

NEV 19%win chanceNDSU 81%
GordStatsNDSU by 14.181% to win · NEV 15–NDSU 29
DraftKingsNDSU -14.5O/U 42.5
ESPN FPINDSU 80%win chance
Watch score42

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • N Dakota St's pass defense (19th) meets Nevada's passing game (99th).
  • N Dakota St's big-play offense (47th) meets Nevada's big-play defense (96th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Nevada Offense vs N Dakota St Defense

NEV offNDSU def
EPA per play
51st+0.127th-0.01
Run EPA
25th+0.115th-0.03
Pass EPA
99th+0.1419th+0.11
Success rate
73rd41%33rd39%
Explosiveness
12th0.9610th0.89
Line yards
94th2.8840th2.88
Havoc
47th14%45th17%
Points per trip
49th4.151st1.48
Third downs
100th36%49th35%

Nevada: 66 plays a game (84th most) · passes on 42% of plays

N Dakota St Offense vs Nevada Defense

NDSU offNEV def
EPA per play
74th+0.09105th+0.15
Run EPA
100th+0.04108th+0.11
Pass EPA
41st+0.2383rd+0.21
Success rate
93rd40%52nd41%
Explosiveness
47th0.9496th0.94
Line yards
72nd2.96110th3.06
Havoc
59th14%123rd13%
Points per trip
92nd3.5772nd3.39
Third downs
67th42%25th31%

N Dakota St: 65 plays a game (96th most) · passes on 39% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Nevada

  • QBCarter Jones+0.12 EPA a dropback · 93 dropbacks · 105th of 130 QBs
  • RBHerschel Turner+0.37 EPA a carry · 56 carries · 8th of 194 RBs
  • WRDamien Moun+0.04 EPA a target · 26 targets · 370th of 390 WRs
  • WRGary Givens III+0.44 EPA a target · 25 targets · 218th of 390 WRs

N Dakota St

  • QBNathan Hayes+0.28 EPA a dropback · 134 dropbacks · 61st of 130 QBs
  • RBDJ Scott-0.01 EPA a carry · 68 carries · 159th of 194 RBs
  • WRJackson Williams+0.72 EPA a target · 33 targets · 92nd of 390 WRs
  • WRMekhi Collins+0.34 EPA a target · 22 targets · 272nd of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Nevada

  • W30-13at UTEP+12
  • L33-36vs Air Force+2
  • L20-27at MTSU−4
  • L7-20vs Montana St−43

N Dakota St

  • L7-13at UNLV−6
  • W28-0vs Wyoming+10
  • W31-10at Sacramento St+2
  • W38-32at Air Force−4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).