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New Mexico at Hawai'i

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

New Mexico4-1
at
Hawai'i1-5

Sat, Oct 17 · 10:30 PM ET · FS1

Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Honolulu, HI

⛅ 83° Intermittent clouds · rain 7% · wind 24 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes New Mexico by 17.6, the book by 14.5: a lean to New Mexico -14.5.

On the total, GordStats says 51 to the book's 44.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

UNM 87%win chanceHAW 13%
GordStatsUNM by 17.687% to win · UNM 34–HAW 17
DraftKingsUNM -14.5O/U 44.5
ESPN FPIUNM 90%win chance
Watch score48

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • New Mexico's run game (12th) meets Hawai'i's run defense (132nd).
  • New Mexico's defense (20th) meets Hawai'i's offense (115th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

New Mexico Offense vs Hawai'i Defense

UNM offHAW def
EPA per play
41st+0.15128th+0.22
Run EPA
12th+0.13132nd+0.15
Pass EPA
67th+0.1889th+0.23
Success rate
74th41%132nd48%
Explosiveness
4th0.9891st0.94
Line yards
23rd3.09126th3.16
Havoc
25th12%109th13%
Points per trip
47th4.20100th3.85
Third downs
63rd42%92nd40%

New Mexico: 66 plays a game (81st most) · passes on 40% of plays

Hawai'i Offense vs New Mexico Defense

HAW offUNM def
EPA per play
115th+0.0320th+0.02
Run EPA
116th+0.0226th+0.02
Pass EPA
113th+0.1167th+0.18
Success rate
113th38%20th37%
Explosiveness
115th0.91103rd0.95
Line yards
49th3.0112th2.73
Havoc
112th17%1st26%
Points per trip
127th2.702nd1.60
Third downs
85th38%35th32%

Hawai'i: 73 plays a game (18th most) · passes on 65% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

New Mexico

  • QBToa Faavae+0.22 EPA a dropback · 67 dropbacks
  • RBScottre Humphrey+0.10 EPA a carry · 58 carries · 111th of 194 RBs
  • WRBailen George+0.38 EPA a target · 20 targets · 252nd of 390 WRs
  • TECade Keith+0.74 EPA a target · 18 targets · 26th of 114 TEs

Hawai'i

  • QBMicah Alejado+0.07 EPA a dropback · 278 dropbacks · 115th of 130 QBs
  • RBDevon Rice+0.13 EPA a carry · 66 carries · 100th of 194 RBs
  • WRKainoa Carvalho+0.17 EPA a target · 45 targets · 338th of 390 WRs
  • WRTama Uiliata+0.60 EPA a target · 42 targets · 142nd of 390 WRs

Recent Form

New Mexico

  • W61-7vs UTEP+30
  • W42-18at New Mexico St+12
  • L6-14at Oklahoma+10
  • W70-7vs Mercyhurst+26

Hawai'i

  • L12-30at Arizona St+4
  • L16-20vs San José St−7
  • L10-27at Wyoming−22
  • W29-19vs New Mexico St+4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).