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San José St at UTEP

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

San José St3-3
at
UTEP1-5

Sat, Oct 17 · 9:00 PM ET · MW+

Sun Bowl · El Paso, TX

☁️ 62° Mostly cloudy · gusts 14 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes San José St by 4.2, the book by 7: siding with UTEP +7.

On the total, GordStats says 53 to the book's 45.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

SJSU 60%win chanceUTEP 40%
GordStatsSJSU by 4.260% to win · SJSU 28–UTEP 24
DraftKingsSJSU -7O/U 45.5
ESPN FPISJSU 74%win chance
Watch score8Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • San José St's pass defense (24th) meets UTEP's passing game (137th).
  • San José St's passing game (62nd) meets UTEP's pass defense (135th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

San José St Offense vs UTEP Defense

SJSU offUTEP def
EPA per play
97th+0.06127th+0.21
Run EPA
114th+0.02109th+0.11
Pass EPA
62nd+0.19135th+0.35
Success rate
128th37%131st48%
Explosiveness
85th0.9292nd0.94
Line yards
101st2.8678th2.98
Havoc
82nd15%119th13%
Points per trip
107th3.25129th4.39
Third downs
115th33%132nd49%

San José St: 68 plays a game (57th most) · passes on 52% of plays

UTEP Offense vs San José St Defense

UTEP offSJSU def
EPA per play
137th-0.0746th+0.06
Run EPA
124th+0.0088th+0.08
Pass EPA
137th+0.0024th+0.11
Success rate
131st35%77th42%
Explosiveness
19th0.9641st0.92
Line yards
136th2.6491st3.01
Havoc
137th23%86th15%
Points per trip
138th1.5836th2.98
Third downs
138th23%58th36%

UTEP: 55 plays a game (138th most) · passes on 44% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

San José St

  • QBLuke Weaver+0.28 EPA a dropback · 204 dropbacks · 64th of 130 QBs
  • RBJabari Bates+0.01 EPA a carry · 115 carries · 148th of 194 RBs
  • WRCarson Clark+0.41 EPA a target · 50 targets · 233rd of 390 WRs
  • WRJerry Mcclure+0.19 EPA a target · 33 targets · 337th of 390 WRs

UTEP

  • QBEJ Colson+0.09 EPA a dropback · 71 dropbacks
  • RBTavorus Jones+0.00 EPA a carry · 37 carries · 156th of 194 RBs
  • WRCarver Cheeks+0.26 EPA a target · 21 targets · 312th of 390 WRs
  • WRJaden Smith+0.50 EPA a target · 14 targets

Recent Form

San José St

  • L13-16vs Wyoming−9
  • W20-16at Hawai'i+7
  • L10-26vs Fresno St−8
  • W30-20vs Cal Poly−16

UTEP

  • L13-30vs Nevada−12
  • L7-61at New Mexico−30
  • L7-33vs Oregon St−20
  • L17-52at Michigan−4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).