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UNLV at Air Force

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

UNLV4-2
at
Air Force4-1

Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET · CBSSN

Falcon Stadium · USAF Academy, CO

☀️ 68° Mostly sunny · gusts 10 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes UNLV by 0.8, the book has Air Force by 1.5: siding with UNLV +1.5.

On the total, GordStats says 51 to the book's 47.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

UNLV 52%win chanceAFA 48%
GordStatsUNLV by 0.852% to win · UNLV 26–AFA 25
DraftKingsAFA -1.5O/U 47.5
ESPN FPIUNLV 52%win chance
Watch score48Toss-up

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Air Force's offensive line (2nd) meets UNLV's defensive front (127th).
  • Air Force's third-down defense (9th) meets UNLV's third-down offense (90th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

UNLV Offense vs Air Force Defense

UNLV offAFA def
EPA per play
101st+0.0555th+0.08
Run EPA
83rd+0.0549th+0.05
Pass EPA
95th+0.1559th+0.16
Success rate
129th36%35th40%
Explosiveness
49th0.9481st0.94
Line yards
65th2.9797th3.03
Havoc
91st16%96th14%
Points per trip
120th2.8871st3.39
Third downs
90th37%9th28%

UNLV: 68 plays a game (63rd most) · passes on 42% of plays

Air Force Offense vs UNLV Defense

AFA offUNLV def
EPA per play
39th+0.1532nd+0.05
Run EPA
6th+0.1553rd+0.05
Pass EPA
96th+0.1527th+0.11
Success rate
18th47%38th40%
Explosiveness
84th0.9222nd0.91
Line yards
2nd3.28127th3.16
Havoc
1st6%50th17%
Points per trip
32nd4.4320th2.81
Third downs
8th54%77th38%

Air Force: 75 plays a game (10th most) · passes on 14% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

UNLV

  • QBJackson Arnold+0.22 EPA a dropback · 161 dropbacks · 82nd of 130 QBs
  • RBJai'Den Thomas+0.04 EPA a carry · 92 carries · 139th of 194 RBs
  • TEKeyan Burnett+0.23 EPA a target · 23 targets · 81st of 114 TEs
  • WRTastean Reddicks+0.48 EPA a target · 23 targets · 194th of 390 WRs

Air Force

  • QBLiam Szarka+0.06 EPA a dropback · 40 dropbacks
  • RBOwen Allen-0.04 EPA a carry · 57 carries · 173rd of 194 RBs
  • WRMatt Long+1.36 EPA a target · 6 targets

Recent Form

UNLV

  • W13-7vs N Dakota St+6
  • W39-31vs California+2
  • W38-10at Akron+17
  • L6-44at North Texas−31

Air Force

  • W28-7at N Illinois+16
  • W14-9vs Navy+3
  • W36-33at Nevada−2
  • L32-38vs N Dakota St+4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).