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Ohio at Sacramento St

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 11:33 AM ET

Ohio4-2
at
Sacramento St1-5

Sat, Oct 17 · 10:00 PM ET · ESPN+

Hornet Stadium · Sacramento, CA

☀️ 79° Clear

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Ohio by 16.5, the book by 15.5: siding with Ohio -15.5.

On the total, GordStats says 51 to the book's 47.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

OHIO 85%win chanceSAC 15%
GordStatsOHIO by 16.585% to win · OHIO 34–SAC 17
DraftKingsOHIO -15.5O/U 47.5
ESPN FPIOHIO 88%win chance
Watch score10

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Ohio's offensive line (14th) meets Sacramento St's defensive front (106th).
  • Ohio's defensive front (64th) meets Sacramento St's offensive line (130th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Ohio Offense vs Sacramento St Defense

OHIO offSAC def
EPA per play
78th+0.09111th+0.16
Run EPA
68th+0.0786th+0.08
Pass EPA
92nd+0.16118th+0.29
Success rate
51st43%68th42%
Explosiveness
125th0.90133rd0.98
Line yards
14th3.15106th3.06
Havoc
57th14%130th11%
Points per trip
58th4.00103rd3.94
Third downs
11th52%65th36%

Ohio: 65 plays a game (99th most) · passes on 40% of plays

Sacramento St Offense vs Ohio Defense

SAC offOHIO def
EPA per play
133rd-0.04102nd+0.15
Run EPA
130th-0.0192nd+0.09
Pass EPA
133rd+0.04113th+0.27
Success rate
101st40%102nd44%
Explosiveness
137th0.88106th0.95
Line yards
130th2.7164th2.95
Havoc
114th17%71st16%
Points per trip
130th2.41114th4.09
Third downs
109th35%118th45%

Sacramento St: 69 plays a game (50th most) · passes on 59% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Ohio

  • QBMatt Vezza+0.20 EPA a dropback · 62 dropbacks
  • RBVictor Rosa+0.17 EPA a carry · 62 carries · 78th of 194 RBs
  • WRRiley Neer+0.81 EPA a target · 41 targets · 68th of 390 WRs
  • WRDom Dorwart+0.52 EPA a target · 22 targets · 180th of 390 WRs

Sacramento St

  • QBJackson Sharman+0.10 EPA a dropback · 125 dropbacks · 111th of 130 QBs
  • RBIsaiah Ene-0.18 EPA a carry · 34 carries
  • WRMatthew Coleman+0.41 EPA a target · 44 targets · 231st of 390 WRs
  • WROnterrio Smith Jr.+0.28 EPA a target · 38 targets · 308th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Ohio

  • W31-14vs C Michigan+8
  • W13-10at Kent State−11
  • W35-7vs Stonehill−2
  • L36-41at South Alabama−1

Sacramento St

  • L10-38at Bowling Green−21
  • L6-35vs UMass−37
  • L10-31vs N Dakota St−2
  • L3-49at Fresno St−43

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).