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Akron at Miami OH

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 11:33 AM ET

Akron1-5
at
Miami OH3-3

Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET · ESPN+

Yager Stadium · Oxford, OH

☀️ 53° Sunny · gusts 21 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Miami OH by 12.6, the book by 10: siding with Miami OH -10.

On the total, GordStats says 50 to the book's 46.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

AKR 21%win chanceM-OH 79%
GordStatsM-OH by 12.679% to win · AKR 19–M-OH 32
DraftKingsM-OH -10O/U 46.5
ESPN FPIM-OH 83%win chance
Watch score18

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Miami OH's passing game (36th) meets Akron's pass defense (131st).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Akron Offense vs Miami OH Defense

AKR offM-OH def
EPA per play
93rd+0.07114th+0.17
Run EPA
52nd+0.0942nd+0.04
Pass EPA
98th+0.14128th+0.31
Success rate
94th40%118th46%
Explosiveness
107th0.9180th0.93
Line yards
22nd3.1029th2.83
Havoc
128th19%124th12%
Points per trip
79th3.75128th4.37
Third downs
78th39%109th43%

Akron: 65 plays a game (98th most) · passes on 52% of plays

Miami OH Offense vs Akron Defense

M-OH offAKR def
EPA per play
62nd+0.11138th+0.26
Run EPA
75th+0.06133rd+0.15
Pass EPA
36th+0.24131st+0.32
Success rate
127th37%127th47%
Explosiveness
54th0.9488th0.94
Line yards
82nd2.93133rd3.23
Havoc
84th15%118th13%
Points per trip
85th3.68118th4.14
Third downs
104th36%99th41%

Miami OH: 59 plays a game (131st most) · passes on 50% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Akron

  • QBBrayden Roggow+0.17 EPA a dropback · 94 dropbacks · 97th of 130 QBs
  • RBJordan Gant+0.07 EPA a carry · 71 carries · 128th of 194 RBs
  • WRMarcel Williams+0.47 EPA a target · 36 targets · 202nd of 390 WRs
  • WRKyan Mason-0.17 EPA a target · 31 targets · 385th of 390 WRs

Miami OH

  • QBDavid McComb+0.70 EPA a dropback · 98 dropbacks · 3rd of 130 QBs
  • RBD'Shawntae Jones-0.15 EPA a carry · 34 carries
  • WRMaleek Huggins+1.12 EPA a target · 24 targets · 12th of 390 WRs
  • WRDamarion Witten+0.81 EPA a target · 23 targets · 65th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Akron

  • L23-25vs E Michigan−2
  • L17-41at C Michigan−22
  • L10-38vs UNLV−17
  • L7-41at Minnesota−14

Miami OH

  • W20-19at UMass−5
  • L20-24vs Bowling Green−22
  • W24-21vs UConn+7
  • L31-35at Cincinnati+16

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).