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App State at Coastal

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

App State3-2
at
Coastal2-4

Fri, Oct 16 · 8:00 PM ET · ESPN2

Brooks Stadium (SC) · Conway, SC

☀️ 81° Mostly clear · wind 10 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes App State by 1.3, the book by 1.5 — they agree, no lean.

On the total, GordStats says 51 to the book's 48.5: siding with the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

APP 53%win chanceCCU 47%
GordStatsAPP by 1.353% to win · APP 26–CCU 25
DraftKingsAPP -1.5O/U 48.5
ESPN FPIAPP 53%win chance
Watch score26Toss-up

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Coastal's run defense (58th) meets App State's run game (127th).
  • App State's big-play defense (29th) meets Coastal's big-play offense (83rd).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

App State Offense vs Coastal Defense

APP offCCU def
EPA per play
113th+0.0393rd+0.14
Run EPA
127th-0.0158th+0.06
Pass EPA
79th+0.17102nd+0.26
Success rate
122nd37%111th45%
Explosiveness
72nd0.937th0.89
Line yards
125th2.7692nd3.02
Havoc
86th15%68th16%
Points per trip
96th3.4949th3.10
Third downs
124th31%105th42%

App State: 69 plays a game (51st most) · passes on 51% of plays

Coastal Offense vs App State Defense

CCU offAPP def
EPA per play
90th+0.0794th+0.14
Run EPA
81st+0.05105th+0.10
Pass EPA
78th+0.1766th+0.17
Success rate
121st38%126th47%
Explosiveness
83rd0.9229th0.91
Line yards
56th2.9888th3.01
Havoc
130th19%28th18%
Points per trip
104th3.3247th3.07
Third downs
112th34%61st36%

Coastal: 65 plays a game (92nd most) · passes on 49% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

App State

  • QBMalachi Singleton+0.36 EPA a dropback · 155 dropbacks · 41st of 130 QBs
  • RBJaquari Lewis+0.08 EPA a carry · 54 carries · 124th of 194 RBs
  • WRSam Pickett III+0.65 EPA a target · 34 targets · 119th of 390 WRs
  • WRNate Branch+0.11 EPA a target · 28 targets · 352nd of 390 WRs

Coastal

  • QBDeuce Bailey+0.22 EPA a dropback · 180 dropbacks · 80th of 130 QBs
  • RBJevon Edwards-0.10 EPA a carry · 44 carries · 181st of 194 RBs
  • WRKarmello English+0.25 EPA a target · 32 targets · 315th of 390 WRs
  • WRTristian Gardner+0.39 EPA a target · 32 targets · 248th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

App State

  • L3-10vs Old Dominion−12
  • L31-41at NC State+7
  • W26-21vs Charlotte−16
  • W27-24at East Carolina+15

Coastal

  • W27-21at Marshall+9
  • L24-31vs GA Southern−3
  • L17-34vs Liberty−18
  • L14-22at Delaware−2

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).