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Arkansas St at Southern Miss

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

Arkansas St2-4
at
Southern Miss1-4

Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET · ESPN+

M. M. Roberts Stadium · Hattiesburg, MS

☀️ 67° Sunny · wind 10 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Southern Miss by 0.9, the book has Arkansas St by 6.5: a lean to Southern Miss +6.5.

On the total, GordStats says 57 to the book's 62.5: a lean to the Under.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

ARST 48%win chanceUSM 52%
GordStatsUSM by 0.952% to win · ARST 28–USM 29
DraftKingsARST -6.5O/U 62.5
ESPN FPIARST 54%win chance
Watch score25Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Arkansas St's third-down offense (17th) meets Southern Miss' third-down defense (123rd).
  • Southern Miss' offensive line (31st) meets Arkansas St's defensive front (132nd).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Arkansas St Offense vs Southern Miss Defense

ARST offUSM def
EPA per play
59th+0.11129th+0.22
Run EPA
59th+0.07138th+0.18
Pass EPA
61st+0.2096th+0.25
Success rate
30th45%135th49%
Explosiveness
105th0.91119th0.96
Line yards
61st2.97137th3.29
Havoc
66th14%129th12%
Points per trip
53rd4.1190th3.69
Third downs
17th51%123rd46%

Arkansas St: 60 plays a game (127th most) · passes on 53% of plays

Southern Miss Offense vs Arkansas St Defense

USM offARST def
EPA per play
107th+0.05118th+0.18
Run EPA
62nd+0.07118th+0.12
Pass EPA
109th+0.12123rd+0.29
Success rate
100th40%130th47%
Explosiveness
110th0.9197th0.94
Line yards
31st3.07132nd3.21
Havoc
72nd15%132nd11%
Points per trip
84th3.70104th3.94
Third downs
116th32%130th48%

Southern Miss: 71 plays a game (36th most) · passes on 54% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Arkansas St

  • QBTrey Owens+0.24 EPA a dropback · 180 dropbacks · 73rd of 130 QBs
  • RBSolomon Baggett+0.09 EPA a carry · 42 carries · 121st of 194 RBs
  • WRHunter Summers+0.92 EPA a target · 37 targets · 39th of 390 WRs
  • WRChauncy Cobb+0.53 EPA a target · 33 targets · 174th of 390 WRs

Southern Miss

  • QBLandy Lyddy+0.15 EPA a dropback · 79 dropbacks
  • RBSteven Robinson+0.17 EPA a carry · 60 carries · 77th of 194 RBs
  • WRMario Sanders II+0.90 EPA a target · 37 targets · 45th of 390 WRs
  • WRA.J. Little+0.64 EPA a target · 21 targets · 125th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Arkansas St

  • L49-56vs South Alabama−9
  • L20-23at Louisiana+3
  • W17-14vs Kennesaw St+1
  • L7-31at TCU−4

Southern Miss

  • L34-55at Troy−17
  • L21-24at Tulane+17
  • L20-48vs UConn−25
  • L8-43at Auburn−15

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).