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Arkansas St
Updated Thu, Oct 15 · 11:35 PM ET
2–4 · 106th of 138
Rated -10.7 points vs an average FBS team · scoring +1.0 vs the average game
Projected Record
| Source | W–L | How |
|---|---|---|
| GordStats | 5.0–7.0 | Results so far plus this model's win chance in each game left |
| ESPN FPI | 5.1–6.9 | ESPN's simulation of the full schedule |
Advanced
Offense EPA/play+0.1159th of 138
Defense EPA/play+0.18118th of 138
Success rate45.3%30th of 138
Success allowed47.4%130th of 138
Explosiveness0.91105th of 138
Defensive havoc11.0%132nd of 138
3rd down50.8%17th of 138
Turnover margin/g+0.1759th of 138
Opponent-adjusted where it can be; every team, every figure, on Team Stats.
Schedule
| Opponent | Date | Result | Expected | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 at Memphis | Sep 5 | L 24–42 | -20.7 | — |
2 vs West Georgia | Sep 12 | W 52–7 | +25.3 | — |
3 at TCU | Sep 19 | L 7–31 | -20.4 | — |
4 vs Kennesaw St | Sep 26 | W 17–14 | +1.7 | — |
5 at Louisiana | Oct 3 | L 20–23 | -6.2 | — |
6 vs South Alabama | Oct 8 | L 49–56 | +2.5 | — |
7 at Southern Miss | Oct 17 | proj 28–29 | -0.9 | 48% |
8 vs Georgia St | Oct 24 | proj 27–30 | -3.2 | 42% |
10 vs UL Monroe | Nov 7 | proj 36–20 | +16.3 | 85% |
11 at Coastal | Nov 14 | proj 27–26 | +0.5 | 51% |
12 at Louisiana Tech | Nov 21 | proj 24–33 | -9.7 | 27% |
13 vs Troy | Nov 28 | proj 26–26 | +0.3 | 51% |
Games without a final yet show this model's projected score, tagged proj. Expected is this model's margin from this team's side - for a finished game, the one on record before kickoff, so a result can be read against what was expected of it. Win is the chance of winning an upcoming game. How well any of this has worked is on the predictions page.