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Georgia St at James Madison

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

Georgia St4-1
at
James Madison6-0

Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET · ESPNU

Bridgeforth Stadium · Harrisonburg, VA

☀️ 50° Mostly sunny · rain 20% · wind 16 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes James Madison by 16.7, the book by 10: a lean to James Madison -10.

On the total, GordStats says 59 to the book's 57.5: siding with the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

GAST 14%win chanceJMU 86%
GordStatsJMU by 16.786% to win · GAST 21–JMU 38
DraftKingsJMU -10O/U 57.5
ESPN FPIJMU 77%win chance
Watch score54

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Georgia St's third-down defense (6th) meets James Madison's third-down offense (82nd).
  • Georgia St's third-down offense (18th) meets James Madison's third-down defense (80th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Georgia St Offense vs James Madison Defense

GAST offJMU def
EPA per play
36th+0.1562nd+0.09
Run EPA
82nd+0.0532nd+0.03
Pass EPA
10th+0.3461st+0.16
Success rate
46th43%63rd41%
Explosiveness
92nd0.9233rd0.91
Line yards
59th2.9870th2.96
Havoc
17th11%60th16%
Points per trip
23rd4.6016th2.72
Third downs
18th51%80th39%

Georgia St: 71 plays a game (31st most) · passes on 43% of plays

James Madison Offense vs Georgia St Defense

JMU offGAST def
EPA per play
24th+0.1948th+0.06
Run EPA
39th+0.1078th+0.07
Pass EPA
24th+0.2916th+0.10
Success rate
44th44%65th41%
Explosiveness
100th0.9289th0.94
Line yards
33rd3.0665th2.95
Havoc
13th10%16th20%
Points per trip
27th4.4817th2.74
Third downs
82nd39%6th26%

James Madison: 69 plays a game (52nd most) · passes on 44% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Georgia St

  • QBCameran Brown+0.54 EPA a dropback · 123 dropbacks · 11th of 130 QBs
  • RBLanear McCrary Jr.+0.10 EPA a carry · 64 carries · 114th of 194 RBs
  • WRRodshaun Dorsey+1.16 EPA a target · 25 targets · 9th of 390 WRs
  • WRDJ Riles+1.30 EPA a target · 18 targets · 2nd of 390 WRs

James Madison

  • QBCamden Coleman+0.29 EPA a dropback · 156 dropbacks · 58th of 130 QBs
  • RBGeorge Pettaway+0.28 EPA a carry · 89 carries · 30th of 194 RBs
  • WRBraeden Wisloski+0.07 EPA a target · 29 targets · 362nd of 390 WRs
  • WRCorey Scott+0.82 EPA a target · 27 targets · 64th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Georgia St

  • W42-10vs Old Dominion+32
  • W35-14vs N Illinois+7
  • L30-44at UCF+7
  • W31-17at Kennesaw St+27

James Madison

  • W27-24at GA Southern−14
  • W45-17vs Marshall−1
  • W46-20at Old Dominion+13
  • W26-13at San Diego St0

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).