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Troy at Louisiana

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

Troy3-2
at
Louisiana4-2

Sat, Oct 17 · 5:00 PM ET · ESPN+

Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium · Lafayette, LA

☀️ 72° Mostly sunny · wind 14 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Louisiana by 4.7, the book by 3: siding with Louisiana -3.

On the total, GordStats says 50 to the book's 48.5: siding with the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

TROY 38%win chanceUL 62%
GordStatsUL by 4.762% to win · TROY 23–UL 27
DraftKingsUL -3O/U 48.5
ESPN FPIUL 60%win chance
Watch score40Toss-up

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Troy's third-down defense (24th) meets Louisiana's third-down offense (86th).
  • Louisiana's run defense (10th) meets Troy's run game (53rd).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Troy Offense vs Louisiana Defense

TROY offUL def
EPA per play
69th+0.1041st+0.06
Run EPA
53rd+0.0810th-0.01
Pass EPA
77th+0.1787th+0.23
Success rate
53rd43%70th42%
Explosiveness
40th0.9415th0.90
Line yards
80th2.9341st2.88
Havoc
117th17%40th18%
Points per trip
83rd3.71120th4.16
Third downs
83rd38%114th44%

Troy: 75 plays a game (13th most) · passes on 43% of plays

Louisiana Offense vs Troy Defense

UL offTROY def
EPA per play
63rd+0.11107th+0.16
Run EPA
60th+0.0775th+0.07
Pass EPA
50th+0.21101st+0.26
Success rate
98th40%109th45%
Explosiveness
34th0.9562nd0.93
Line yards
55th2.9973rd2.96
Havoc
54th14%61st16%
Points per trip
87th3.6528th2.91
Third downs
86th38%24th31%

Louisiana: 66 plays a game (86th most) · passes on 37% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Troy

  • QBWill Crowder+0.14 EPA a dropback · 161 dropbacks · 99th of 130 QBs
  • RBGavin Griffin+0.06 EPA a carry · 69 carries · 130th of 194 RBs
  • WRTK Keyes+0.60 EPA a target · 28 targets · 147th of 390 WRs
  • WRJace Petty+0.10 EPA a target · 23 targets · 355th of 390 WRs

Louisiana

  • QBD'Wayne' Winfield+0.22 EPA a dropback · 133 dropbacks · 81st of 130 QBs
  • RBSteven Blanco+0.25 EPA a carry · 41 carries · 46th of 194 RBs
  • WRLandon Strother+0.10 EPA a target · 18 targets · 357th of 390 WRs
  • WRKedarius Wade+0.45 EPA a target · 17 targets · 212th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Troy

  • W55-34vs Southern Miss+17
  • L10-21at Utah State−7
  • L17-27at Missouri+17
  • W34-17vs Alabama St−10

Louisiana

  • L31-32at Louisiana Tech+5
  • W23-20vs Arkansas St−3
  • W34-7at Charlotte+19
  • W21-14vs UAB−5

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).