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MTSU at FIU

Week 8 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

MTSU3-3
at
FIU3-3

Tue, Oct 20 · 7:00 PM ET · CBSSN

Pitbull Stadium · Miami, FL

☀️ 85° Sunny · rain 10%

The Call How this works

GordStats likes FIU by 11.8, the book by 10: siding with FIU -10.

On the total, GordStats says 45 to the book's 45.5: siding with the Under.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

MTSU 23%win chanceFIU 77%
GordStatsFIU by 11.877% to win · MTSU 17–FIU 28
DraftKingsFIU -10O/U 45.5
ESPN FPIFIU 81%win chance
Watch score21

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • FIU's third-down defense (15th) meets MTSU's third-down offense (137th).
  • FIU's third-down offense (32nd) meets MTSU's third-down defense (89th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

MTSU Offense vs FIU Defense

MTSU offFIU def
EPA per play
99th+0.0516th+0.01
Run EPA
106th+0.0322nd+0.01
Pass EPA
102nd+0.1428th+0.11
Success rate
119th38%24th38%
Explosiveness
93rd0.9227th0.91
Line yards
75th2.9415th2.75
Havoc
75th15%38th18%
Points per trip
68th3.8722nd2.84
Third downs
137th26%15th29%

MTSU: 59 plays a game (132nd most) · passes on 56% of plays

FIU Offense vs MTSU Defense

FIU offMTSU def
EPA per play
121st+0.02106th+0.15
Run EPA
132nd-0.02129th+0.14
Pass EPA
94th+0.1570th+0.18
Success rate
105th39%133rd48%
Explosiveness
134th0.89110th0.95
Line yards
134th2.64135th3.25
Havoc
87th15%136th10%
Points per trip
124th2.7588th3.66
Third downs
32nd46%89th40%

FIU: 73 plays a game (22nd most) · passes on 50% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

MTSU

  • QBRoman Gagliano+0.21 EPA a dropback · 188 dropbacks · 87th of 130 QBs
  • WRCam'Ron Lacy+0.45 EPA a target · 55 targets · 214th of 390 WRs
  • WRNeo Clifton+0.65 EPA a target · 21 targets · 122nd of 390 WRs

FIU

  • QBJ.J. Kohl+0.26 EPA a dropback · 205 dropbacks · 71st of 130 QBs
  • RBAnthony Carrie-0.09 EPA a carry · 81 carries · 179th of 194 RBs
  • WRMaguire Anderson+0.76 EPA a target · 52 targets · 80th of 390 WRs
  • TEJames Resar-0.12 EPA a target · 30 targets · 108th of 114 TEs

Recent Form

MTSU

  • W33-30vs Delaware+6
  • L0-55at Kansas−32
  • L13-23at Jax State+2
  • W27-20vs Nevada+4

FIU

  • L24-27at Jax State+2
  • W22-3vs New Mexico St+17
  • W20-3vs Long Island−13
  • L10-16at FAU−7

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).